Tuesday, August 20, 2013

Tight End Tiers

Tight end tiers


Tier 1 - 1st / 2nd
1. Jimmy Graham


Tier 2 - 4th / 5th
2. Rob Gronkowski
3. Vernon Davis


Tier 3 - 6th / 7th
4. Jason Witten
5. Tony Gonzalez


Tier 4 - 8th - 12th
6. Jermichael Finley
7. Zach Sudfeld
8. Julius Thomas
9. Cameron Jordan
10. Greg Olsen


Tier 5 - 13th - 15th
11. Colby Fleener
12. Dwayne Allen
13. Rob Housler
14. Martellus Bennett
15. Tyler Eifert


Tier 6 - the rest
16. Brandon Myers
17. Owen Daniels
18. Brandon Pettigrew
19. Kyle Rudolph
20. Jared Cook
21. Fred Davis
22. Zach Miller
23. Zach Ertz
24. Antonio Gates

Quarterback Tiers

Here are my quarterback tiers and the rounds I would take each quarterback in.


Tier 1 - 3rd
1. Drew Brees
2. Aaron Rodgers
3. Peyton Manning


Tier 2 - 4th / 7th
4. Cam Newton
5. Colin Kaepernick
6. Andrew Luck
7. Russell Wilson
8. Robert Griffin III

9. Matt Ryan
10. Tom Brady


Tier 3 - 8th / 9th
11. Matthew Stafford
12. Tony Romo


Tier 4 - 10th / 11th
13. Mike Vick
14. Carson Palmer
15. Jay Cutler


Tier 5 - 12th / 13th
16. Eli Manning
17. Andy Dalton
18. EJ Manuel
19. Ben Roethlisberger
20. Brandon Weeden


Tier 6 - 14th / 15th / 16th
21. Sam Bradford
22. Josh Freeman
23. Alex Smith
24. Ryan Tannehill

Wide Receiver Tiers

My wide receiver tiers have a car theme, VROOM VROOM. Time to drive into my wide receiver tiers for 2013.


Tier 1 "FERRARI / BUGATTI" - simply, I think these two wide receivers are the two best receivers in the league, and they are CLEARLY options 1, 2, 3, and 4 for their qb.
1. Calvin Johnson
2. Brandon Marshall


Tier 2 "MERCEDES BENZ" - wide receivers who will be the focal points of their offense's passing attack on teams that should throw the ball a lot.
3. AJ Green
4. Dez Bryant
5. Julio Jones
6. Larry Fitzgerald
7. Dwyane Bowe
8. Vincent Jackson


Tier 3 "LEXUS / ACURA" - you'll have a luxury car, but you'll pay a hefty price. These guys number 1 receivers, but lack the ceiling of the tier 2 guys, but at least you'll have a luxury car.
9. Andre Johnson
10. Victor Cruz
11. Roddy White
12. Marques Colston


Tier 4 "INFINITI Q50" - these cars are gorgeous. These wide receivers can explode and be #1 receivers in fantasy, but need to stay healthy and play 16 games.
13. Randall Cobb
14. Eric Decker
15. Torrey Smith


Tier 5 "AUDI TTs" - sleak and stunning, but if you get in an accident, you're in trouble. The wideouts here have WR1 potential but come with the injury prone tag.
16. Danny Amendola
17. Pierre Garçon
18. Hakeem Nicks
19. Jordy Nelson


Tier 6 "VOLKSWAGEN JETTA" - my mom had a Jetta for most of my formative years, and it was a very dependable, durable vehicle. These guys will be your dependable WR2s this year, and I'd say most will stay healthy this year.
20. Reggie Wayne
21. Desean Jackson
22. Wes Welker
23. Antonio Brown
24. Steve Smith
25. Stevie Johnson
26. James Jones
27. Mike Williams


Tier 7 "HONDA CIVIC" - cheap, sleak, and they are underrated and great cars. These wideouts all have the opportunity be WR2s with potential for WR1 but don't come with the flashy price tag of guys higher on the list.
28. Josh Gordon
29. Golden Tate
30. T.Y. Hilton
31. Chris Givens
32. Kenbrell Thompkins


Tier 8 "KIA OPTIMA" - looks like it could be a cool car, but it's coolness factor takes a huge hit from being a Kia. These wideouts could be awesome but they're brought down by the crappy offense they are in.
33. Cecil Shorts
34. Vincent Brown
35. Kenny Britt


Tier 9 "TOYOTA PRIUS" - the beauty of the hybrid vehicle comes in the money that you end up saving in gas over the subsequent years. Similarly, the beauty of these receivers lies in you knowing that you've saved big when you look at their pricetags.
36. Emmanuel Sanders
37. Mohamed Sanu
38. Greg Little

39. Michael Floyd
40. Andre Roberts
41. Kenny Stills / Nick Toon


Tier 10 "MERCURY GRAND MARQUIS" - the old person car, these clunkers aren't the way to go unless your name is Norman or Gertrude. These wideouts aren't wort drafting unless you're drafting a 2011 league.
42. Miles Austin
43. Anquan Boldin
44. Greg Jennings
45. Sidney Rice


Tier 11 "FIATS" - now that people actually have bought Fiats after seeing those silly commercials, we'll learn a lot about Fiats and their staying power on the road this next year. We're going to learn a lot about these wide receivers this year, and a few may stick around in fantasy.
46. Alshon Jeffery
47. Reuben Randle
48. Ryan Broyles
49. Brian Hartline
50. Tavon Austin
51. Deandre Hopkins
52. Robert Wood
53. Brandon Lafell
54. Jeremy Kerley
55. Andre Dobson
56. Markus Wheaton
57. Ace Sanders


Tier 12 "ANY OF THOSE STUPID BOX CARS" - sure go ahead and take one of these guys, I think you'll look like an idiot, but that's just my personal opinion.
58. Mike Wallace
59. Denarius Moore
60. Lance Moore

Monday, August 19, 2013

Running Back Tiers

Tier 1 "TIER 1 IS SELF-EXPLANATORY" - I can see any of these three going 1, 2, and 3 in any order
1. Doug Martin
2. Adrian Peterson
3. Lesean Mccoy


Tier 2 "HORSES"
4. CJ Spiller
5. Trent Richardson
6. Steven Jackson


Tier 3 "FORMER TIER 1 GUYS"
7. Jamaal Charles
8. Marshawn Lynch
9. Ray Rice
10. Arian Foster


Tier 4 "2ND ROUND RUNNING BACKS"
11. Stevan Ridley
12. Matt Forte
13. Alfred Morris
14. Frank Gore
15. Maurice Jones-Drew
16. Chris Johnson


Tier 5 "PPR STUDS"
17. Demarco Murray
18. Darren Sproles
19. Reggie Bush
20. Shane Vereen


Tier 6 "2ND YEAR BREAKOUT CANDIDATES"
21. Lamar Miller
22. David Wilson


Tier 7 "ROOKIES WITH GREAT OPPORTUNITIES"
23. Eddie Lacy
24. Giovani Bernard
25. Montee Ball
26. Le'Veon Bell


Tier 8 "INJURY PRONE BACKS"
27. Ahmad Bradshaw
28. Ryan Mathews
29. Darren McFadden


Tier 9 "RB3s WITH A CHANCE FOR MORE"
30. Mark Ingram
31. Rashard Mendenhall
32. Ben Tate
33. Deangelo Williams
34. Daryl Richardson
35. Bilal Powell
36. Andre Brown


Tier 10 "PPR SLEEPERS" - both these guys would be RB2s if they were given the shot... One has the suddenly unfragile Reggie Bush in front of him and the other has Mike Shanahan as his coach GREAT LATE ROUND PICKS
37. Joique Bell
38. Roy Helu


Tier 11 "MY 2 DEEP SLEEPERS" 
39. Knowshon Moreno
40. Christine Michael


Tier 12 "THEY'LL HAVE SOME ROLE IN THE OFFENSE" - but not necessarily enough to warrant you rostering them
41. Ronnie Hillman
42. Vick Ballard
43. Pierre Thomas
44. Bryce Brown
45. Fred Jackson
46. Danny Woodhead
47. Isaiah Pead
48. Jacquizz Rodgers


Tier 13 "HE'LL BE DECENT IN THE THREE GAMES HE PLAYS FOR YOU" - I'm not taking these injury prone guys, sorry
49. Chris Ivory
50. Jonathan Stewart

Rankings, 101-150



101. Michael Vick - he's the perfect fit for Chip Kelly's fast paced offense, and since the offense dictates getting the ball out of the qb's hands quickly, Vick's got a chance to play 16 games since 2006. If he can, while still scrambling every now and then, Vick will return to his spot in the top 5 qbs.



102. Carson Palmer - Carson Palmer will have a career revitalization in 2013 with Arizona. Well Palmer already had some pretty gaudy fantasy numbers in 2012 with the crappy Raiders. Larry Fitzgerald and Michael Floyd are both better than Denarius Moore, while Housler should be a bigger tight end threat than Myers, especially in the red zone. Palmer's best offenses in his Cincy days with Chad Johnson and T.J. Houshmandzadeh, but lacked the depth the Cardinals have with slot receiver Andre Roberts. Palmer's pairing with playcaller Bruce Arians signifies the Cardinals will be throwing the ball a heck of a lot this year, so there will be lots of stats to be had for Palmer. The Cardinals offensive line went from horrific to passable with the additions of Eric Winston and first round pick Jonathan Cooper, and their defense should be stellar again with Patrick Peterson and wonderful news about Tyrann Mathieu coming out of camp. I am very excited to watch the Cardinals this year!



103. Jay Cutler - The Bears offense is going to be one of the league's best under new coach Marc Trestman. Cutler has a great shot to be a top 12 QB this year, with his best friend Brandon Marshall, Matt Forte, a year of progression from Alshon Jeffery, and new addition Martellus Bennett.



104. Greg Jennings - I'll be the first person to admit I've never really cared for Greg Jennings and it remains that way this year. He's had 2 qbs in his career - Brett Favre and Aaron Rodgers. Now his qb is Christian Ponder, so I'll be avoiding Jennings like the plague, because I don't know just how much of his production has been due to his qbs and how much is due to his actual skills.


105. Anquan Boldin - with Crabtree hurt, many expect Boldin to absorb most his targets. He has 7 straight years with 100+ targets and there will be receptions to be had, but I don't see him being a red zone threat. I think the 49ers red zone most-likely-to-score pecking order goes Kaepernick, Gore, Davis, then Boldin in the 4 spot.


106. Kenny Britt - I can't wait until 2014 when Kenny Britt is signed to another team. On the Titans, he has a few things working against him. The most noteworthy is Jake Locker hasn't proved to be anything special at quarterback. When Britt had Matt Hasselback as his quarterback, he put up elite numbers but always had injuries. Now he's 100% so the injuries may not be there this year, but he doesn't have a good enough quarterback to deliver him the ball. If you combine that with the upgrades at guard for the Titans, it appears they'll be running the ball more often. There's also a number of wide receivers in Tennessee after the Titans drafted Justin Hunter, but talent-wise, Britt is better than any of them.


107. Miles Austin - although he didn't miss a game last year, he was still hampered with lingering hamstring injuries, which clearly affected his 2012 performance. If he can stay healthy this year - note I'm saying stay healthy, not play 16 games but hurt - then he could be the steal of the draft as the #2 receiver in the high powered Cowboys offense, especially if Dez Bryant continues his emergence towards being the a top 3 receiver in football.



108. Andre Brown - not as talented as Wilson, but he's a bigger back. He will at minimum be the goal line back for the Giants, and I'm thinking the Giants will use more of a running back by committee, meaning I'll be taking Brown and his lower ADP instead of Wilson and his high ADP. Injuries remain a concern, however.



109. Ronnie Hillman - the Broncos running game is up in the air, but you want whoever gets the carries in Denver. Let me tell you, even if Hillman and Ball split carries 50/50, Ball will be the running bak to own, as he is the much better red zone threat. 


110. Ryan Broyles - #2 receiver in the great Lions offense, if he stays healthy he could see 80 catches. That's a big if, as he's had ACL surgery twice already.



111. Rueben Randle - he's in a great situation where when if Hakeem Nicks gets hurt, he can step up and be the lead outside receiver for the Giants. The Giants under Eli Manning typically have great offenses so even if Randle earns playing time as a third receiver, he'll put up some nice numbers. His real value lies in the fragile body of Nicks, so when if the injury bug hits Nicks, you'll want Randle on your squad.



112. Deandre Hopkins - he's easily the best #2 wideout the Texans have ever had, he's got HUGE breakout potential.


113. Robert Wood - I love him this year, especially if EJ Manuel wins the job. He'll be Manuel's favorite target for years to come. The connection starts this year.


114. Brian Hartline - Mike Wallace is going open up the middle of the field for the Dolphins, and Hartline will benefit the most. He had 1000 yards last year, did everyone forget that?


115. Alshon Jeffery - he's a physical freak in an offense where Jay Cutler is expected to sling the ball everywhere. Jeffery at the least should be a red zone threat with defenses focusing on Brandon Marshall and Matt Forte, and his 6'3 frame allows for him to catch jump balls over smaller cornerbacks. He's been drawing rave reviews at camp for his strength and athleticism, so he's got a great chance to become a top 20 wide receiver this year if he can stay healthy.


116. Kenny Stills / Nick Toon - one of these guys will be the starter for the Saints and I want whichever guy ends up with the job. They are both better than Lance Moore, so there's gonna be a ton of receptions and yards for Stills or Toon, and maybe even both!



117. Vick Ballard - Bradshaw is already hurt, but he often plays through the pain, so Ballard will get like 10 carries a game, not enough to start him but enough not to drop him. He could be an annoying player to own this year.


118. Bryce Brown - many are expecting the Eagles to run the ball a lot in Chip Kelly's first year in the NFL. Which that being said, I'd expect Mccoy should get the bulk of the carries with Brown spelling him when he gets tired. Kelly could also alternate Mccoy and Brown to keep them fresh in what should be an extremely fast-paced offense, in which case whoever drafts Brown will have great value, but I'm not sure I see that happening.


119. Benjarvus Green-Ellis - he's still the starter in Cincy as he plodded his way to his first 1000 yard season last year, but he has a pretty low ceiling, and many expect Giovani Bernard to take a good chunk of BJGE's carries. BJGE is very one-dimensional so Bernard will be on the field if the Bengals decide to get the ball to their backs through the air. I have a feeling you'll be disappointed starting Green-Ellis any week he doesn't get a TD. He is boring personified. 


120. Rob Housler - he's 6'6, runs a 4.46 40 and Carson Palmer loves to throw the ball to his tight end (see Brandon Myers, 2012). This Arizona offense will be one great offense I tell ya! There are many mouths to feed but they got the perfect coach in Arians and the perfect mother bird in Palmer to feed baby chicks Larry Fitz, Housler, Floyd, and more!



121. Dwayne Allen - you can't talk about Fleener without mentioning Allen. Andrew Luck is such a gifted thrower that I expect both Fleener and Allen to be top 10 tight ends. I cannot stress this enough, there will be lots of targets and catches to be had by Colt tight ends this year.



122. Martellus Bennett - Bennett would have had a career year in 2012 had he not been derailed by injuries. It could happen in 2013, but again, he'll have to stay healthy. There will be plenty of catches and yards available in what should be a great Bears offense.


123. Brandon Myers - the Giants offense has always been friendly to tight ends, but even if Myers stays healthy, he'll be hard-pressed to repeat last years numbers. 2012 will almost certainly be Myers best year in the NFL.



124. Eli Manning - had a down year in 2012, but he was the 6th best qb in 2011. I'd say he needs Nicks to stay healthy for 16 games in order to get back into the top 12 qbs. 


125. Ben Roethlisberger - it feels like he'll never play 16 games because he always has nicks and bruises, so if you take him as your backup, there's no guarantee he'll be healthy and playing for your qbs bye week. If I'm drafting Roethlisberger as my backup qb, I'm making sure my qb has a very early bye week.


126. EJ Manuel - I'm all in on EJ Manuel this year, I love him! The Bills receiving core is young but Manuel was an extremely accurate pass first quarterback in college who should have immediate success throwing the ball, as long as the young Bills wideouts catch it. I'm not worried about Robert Woods or veteran Stevie Johnson, and if rookie Da'Rick Rogers can shed his immaturity, Manuel would suddenly have a great receiving core to work with. He's 6'5, he can make a lot of throws, and if the Bills use some designed runs for him, he could sneak into the top 12 quarterbacks.
Update: Had knee surgery and out for the preseason, but who cares, you're not drafting him to start week 1. Draft him before someone else takes him.


127. Andy Dalton - the Cincy offense has some great skill players, but Dalton isn't all that great. His value comes from the surrounding cast, and he could throw 30 tds. He'll be a top backup qb in 2013, but not much more.


128. Brandon Weeden - have I mentioned how much I love the Browns offense this year? Norv Turner is going to turn Weeden into a very good NFL qb, and he'll be a qb2 this year.



129. Owen Daniels - he's turning 31, he's boring, and the Texans have a legit #2 for the first time in history. Don't expect much from Daniels this year.


130. Christine Michael - Marshawn's got back issues and Michael has the skills to be a STUD running back. For a late round pick, Michael will make a huge impact if Lynch goes down, I'm talking a potential top 10 running back.


131. Chris Ivory - he could be a starting running back for the first time in his career but he's an injury waiting to happen and he's on the Jets, who I think could end up with the first overall pick in the 2014 draft. I'm not going to waste my time writing about a player who will be hurt be week 5.


132. Fred Jackson - I'm not sure if CJ Spiller will be durable enough to get 300 carries over 16 games and Jackson can be explosive both in the running and in the passing game. I like Jackson both as a handcuff to Spiller or just drafting him alone, because if Spiller ever misses time, Jackson could put up RB2 numbers at the least.


133. Brandon Lafell - I've heard the Brandon Lafell talk before but have never invested in him and I don't plan to this year. This year is a make or break year for 27-in-November Lafell, with an aging Steve Smith and Cam Newton entering his physical prime. Unfortunately for Lafell, options 1, 2, and 3 in the red zone are Cam Newton's legs, Greg Olsen, and the 3 prong running back corps, especially Tolbert on the goal line. 



134. Tavon Austin - the plan in St. Louis is to use Austin out of the slot, similar to the role Danny Amendola had, although Austin is faster than Amendola. He could be a ppr machine after the Rams let Steven Jackson walk in free agency, signaling they'll be a pass first team this year. He could get a lot of yards and catches this year, but I wouldn't expect anything too outrageous. Keep in mind a receiver in Jeff Fisher's system hasn't eclipsed 800 yards since 2004, and offensive coordinator Brian Schottenheimer is not viewed as a creative offensive coordinator.


135. Mike Wallace - Tannehill has a big arm, which is necessary for Wallace to have any sort of value, but he only got double digit points 8 times last year and when you combine that with the fact that he had 6 games with 50 or less receiving yards, it's evident that Wallace is the biggest boom or bust wideout in the league. You also need to take into account that Big Ben avoids sacks and extends plays as good as any qb in the NFL which allowed the time for Wallace to get open for big plays. Tannehill isn't there yet, so I'm thinking this year could be worse than last for Wallace, and he only had 836 yards last year. He's definitely a huge risk.


136. Sidney Rice - he's been fairly meehhh since 2009 when 1312 yards on 83 receptions. He's 6'4 and you'd think he'd be Russell Wilson's go to guy, but I think that will be Golden Tate. My one friend in my league takes Sidney Rice every year and I'm going to let him do it again.


137. Lance Moore - the Saints have a great offense and Moore is currently the second receiver, but I wouldn't be surprised if Nick Toon or Kenny Stills surpasses Moore at some point in the season.


138. Jeremy Kerley - I'll like him more once Geno Smith becomes the starter, but with Sanchez behind the helm, Kerley's value is severely limited, but hey, someone's gotta catch passes.


139. Bernard Pierce - backup to Ray Rice, who has never gotten hurt, and that's really it. He won't get enough carries to be relevant this year unless Ray Rice somehow gets hurt.



140. Brandon Pettigrew - he's in a great offense so he'll get opportunities, but that's been said plenty in the past. The addition of Reggie Bush hurts his value.



141. Kyle Rudolph - I'm staying away from Rudolph. He got 60+ receiving yards only TWICE!!!! last year. Let someone else have the headache that will be Kyle Rudolph.


142-145. Sam Bradford, Josh Freeman, Ryan Tannehill, Alex Smith - These are the last of the QBs I am drafting. I am not taking Flacco, Schaub, Rivers, or any other qb not mentioned.


146-150. Dexter Mccluster, Markus Wheaton, Aaron Dobson, Stedman Bailey, Doug Baldwin - 5 wideouts I like as late rate fliers.

Thursday, August 15, 2013

Bold Predictions for 2013

Throughout the years, I've read many a bold predictions post, but this will be my first time writing down my own. Don't get me wrong, I have made MANY bold predictions of my own, usually when drunk with other NFL fans, but I decided I'd like to actually chronicle and broadcast my bold predictions for the internet this year! Some predictions are definitely bolder than others, and I'm hoping around half of these come true. Enjoy!


Two of Jay Cutler, Carson Palmer, Michael Vick, and EJ Manual finish as top 12 fantasy quarterbacks


Demarco Murray stays healthy, plays 14+ games, and finishes as a top 5 running back in ppr leagues.


Stevan Ridley AND Shane Vereen both finish as top 15 running backs.


Joique Bell takes over the Lions running game after Reggie Bush gets hurt (I'm thinking with a bout of turf toe) and runs his way to a top 20 finish.


Montee Ball finishes as best rookie rusher, followed by Lacy and Le'Veon Bell.


Roy Helu scores more fantasy points than Alfred Morris in ppr leagues.


Dwayne Bowe leads the NFL in targets and receptions. Vincent Jackson finishes second.


Josh Gordon and Greg Little both finish as top 20 receivers.


Julian Edelman catches more passes than Wes Welker.


The Arizona Cardinals have a top 5 passing offense, with Palmer finishing as a top 12 qb, Larry Fitzgerald as a top 7 wide receiver, Michael Floyd as a top 20 receiver, Andre Roberts as a top 36 receiver, and Rob Housler as a top 10 tight end, but no Cardinal running back will finish as a top 25 rusher.


Jermichael Finley FINALLY puts everything together and has a top 3 season for tight ends. It is his contract year.


Tampa Bay, Cleveland, and Kansas City will be the top 3 rated defenses.


By the time the Raiders bye week rolls around in week 7, there will be ZERO (zilch, nada, squat) Raider players worth starting.


BenJarvus Green-Ellis is murdered midway through the season by a Giovani Bernard owner who can't stand to see the Law Firm plodding in the red zone any longer.

Monday, August 5, 2013

Doug Martin


Doug Martin – you may be confused as to why Doug Martin is ranked number 1. You may be angry that Doug Martin is ranked number 1. You are more than likely thinking to yourself, “why is this numbskull ranking Doug Martin number 1, I’m gonna stop reading what he’s got to say!” Well if you’ve made it this far without ex-ing (x-ing? xing? clicking the x) to close this tab, then you will at least see where I am coming from. After scrapping together a measly yet not awful 33 points in his first 4 NFL games (8.25 ppg), Martin attained 217 points in his final 12 games, good for an average of 18 ppg! If you remove the two obvious outliers from those 12 games, a 25 rush 251 yards 4 td performance week 9 against the Raiders and a 9 rushes for 16 yards game in which the Bucs were blown out 41-0 week 15 by the Saints, he still averaged 16.4 ppg over those 10 games, and there are a number of reasons to believe that number should be his FLOOR this year.

Offensive Line:
For one, former Pro Bowl and first team All-Pro left guard, one of the absolute best run-blocking guards in the NFL, only played in the first 7 games last season before a toe injury sidelined him for the rest of the year. Before last season, Nicks had never missed an NFL start, so there’s no injury prone tag on him. Right guard Davin Joseph is one of the better right guards in the NFL, and he missed ALL of 2012 due to injury. With Joseph returning, Jeremy Zuttah (RU graduate, go knights) moves back to start at center. Pro bowler Donald Penn will be the starting left tackle, while right tackle will be manned by 6’9 Demar Dotson, at least to start the year. It is also important to note that the Bucs traded for 2011 first rounder Gabe Carimi. I have no statistical evidence to support this but I feel like Wisconsin churns out productive, huge NFL linemen every year, so the addition of Carimi can only help bolster the offensive line, especially since the Bucs oline coach, Bob Bostad, was Carimi’s oline coach at Wisconsin and thus the maestro for the successful olines Wisconsin has had the past few years. Doug Martin will be running behind one of the best, if not THE best offensive line in the NFL this year.

Skillz and Attributez:
Martin is a powerful inside runner with great hands and is good in pass protection, allowing him to be your classic three down back. He is a 5’9, 215 wrecking ball of pure muscle with a low center of gravity, not unlike RU alum Ray Rice. He averaged 4.6 yards per carry on over 300 carries, and added 49 receptions on 71 targets, with the 8th most receptions and 4th most receiving yards. Cool stat alert: Doug Martin would have ranked as the 11th best running back last year if you took away ALL his touchdowns. Martin only fumbled one time during the season. I am looking on ESPN for his fumbling records in college but cannot seem to find them anywhere, but apparently he forced a fumble once during his sophomore year so there’s that.

Defensive Improvements:
This is a key factor in my ranking of Doug Martin number one. With the offseason trade for Darrelle Revis and signing of Dashon Goldson, the Bucs immediately turned their league worst secondary in terms of passing yards allowed into a position of strength. With run stopper Gerald Mccoy manning the middle, and high draft picks Da’quan Bowers and Adrian Clayborn rushing the passer, this defense should be much, much improved. A stingier defense works two-fold in helping Doug Martin; first, they won’t allow the opposition to score as often, allowing the Bucs to not only stay in games longer but also lead in games, which will keep Doug Martin active. Secondly, the Bucs ranked in the bottom third of teams in terms of 3rd down conversion rate, allowing them at a 40.2% rate. Which a MUCH improved secondary, the Bucs should be able to get the offense on the field quicker and more often, allowing for more Doug Martin touches.

Greg Schiano:
Martin also benefits a lot from former Rutgers coach Greg Schiano’s system. Let me tell you as a Rutgers fan, Schiano loves running the ball up the middle. I cannot tell you how many times I watched Jersey Joe Martinek plunge the ball up the middle for 1 yard, causing all Rutgers fans to tear their hair out. Yet Schiano always stuck with that kind of play calling, as well as running back screens, no matter how unsuccessful they were. Doug Martin is Greg Schiano’s ideal back, and he will be handed the rock plenty of times this season.

Conclusion: (IF YOU ONLY READ ONE PART OF THIS DOUG MARTIN BLURB, MAKE IT THIS)
Doug Martin is one of the few three down backs left in the NFL, getting 86% of Tampa Bay's rushes last year. That number is sure to decrease this year right, what with the likes of Mike James and Michael Smith (no, not this guy) as the two running backs on the depth chart behind him, I wrote sarcastically. He had 49 receptions last year, behind your Darren Sproles'es and Lesean Mccoys, but ahead of your Arian Fosters, Matt Fortes, and Adrian Petersons. He also had the 4th most carries in the NFL last year. The Bucs' offensive line is getting back two offensive linemen, and their defense won't be the worst pass defense this year thanks to the arrival of Messieurs Revis and Goldson. A much improved secondary added to last year's best rush defense will lead to the Buccaneers in either close, competitive games or the competition being blown out, both of which are conducive to the handing of the ball to Doug Martin, early, throughout the game, and late i.e. a shit ton of times. Don't be surprised if he leads the NFL in total touches in 2013, and don't expect the Bucs to get blown out like Week 15 of last year. The last thing, something that I failed to mention this entire post... DOUG MARTIN WAS A ROOKIE LAST SEASON! He tied with Arian Foster for the second most running back points last year, and I’ve just chronicled about a page and a half of reasons why that number, and thus his end-of-year ranking, have a great chance of being #1. Rushes. Catches. Yards. Touchdowns. Points. Battle Star Galactica. 
Oh, and also Schiano!!!!!

Tuesday, July 30, 2013

Eric Decker


I had the pleasure of owning Eric Decker last year to the chagrin of my housemate and girlfriend. Every time the Broncos game was broadcast in the New York/New Jersey area, I would constantly yell "DECKER" for almost every Broncos offensive play when I saw Peyton Manning looking his way. Well they heard many "DECKER"s, as he posted 85 catches on 123 targets with 13 touchdowns, way past the point where it became annoying, but whatever... DECKER. When you start digging deeper into Decker and his numbers, both recent and at the collegiate level, it becomes apparent that Eric Decker is an underrated, elite receiver who should be drafted way earlier than his current ADP of 63.



Lets start with a refresher video of Decker in 2012 (I'd suggest muting the video and playing a different song):


What you see there is a lot of perfect passes from a Mr. P. Manning and some gorgeous catches by Decker. Watch the clip starting at 1:07..... I'm waiting...... ok so yea, that was perfection. 



Touchdown Ability
Decker is a 6'3 physical receiver who uses his size to his advantage over smaller corners, especially in the red zone. In 2012, Decker led the NFL in red zone targets with 25 and red zone touchdowns with 12. He clearly has the trust of Peyton Manning, especially as defenses zone in on the more talented Demaryius Thomas. Manning is the GOAT at changing routes and plays at the line of scrimmage to exploit mismatches, and Decker's height difference over defenders allows him to be Manning's go-to guy in the red zone. He finished 2012 with 13 touchdowns and he was a trip away from being tied for the league lead, double digit touchdowns should be a lock for Decker.


The Wes Welker Effect
When Wes Welker signed with the Broncos, people were awestruck thinking about what Welker could do with Peyton Manning. Manning made Brandon Stokely relevant out of the slot for a number of years, so the addition of the best slot receiver in history would be a match made in heaven. Targets don't appear out of nowhere, unless you expect the Broncos to throw the ball more than the 588 times they did in 2012 (1090 total plays - 54%) which is a possibility, but it's not like they're going to blow that number out of the water. Welker will eat up all of Stokely's 57 targets from 2012, but Welker is used to seeing 100+ targets. The question then is "where does Welker get his 43+ more targets?" and the popular answer is Decker, but I'm inclined to disagree. For starters, Bronco tight ends Jacob Tamme and Joel Dreeson combined for 143 targets last year, a number that is sure to decrease with the emergence of Julius Thomas at tight end. If you give Bronco tight ends 100 targets this year, then boom Welker's got his 100 targets. The fact is the drop in Decker's targets won't be nearly enough to offset the increased productivity Decker should receive from Welker's presence. What I mean by that is Wes Welker is the greatest slot receiver of all time that has now paired with Peyton Manning, and defenses know that. They're not going to treat Welker like they treated Stokely last year, they're going to have to focus every week on stopping Welker.


Peyton Manning
Reggie Wayne averaged 1246 as the number 2 receiver over the 5 seasons from 2004-2008. Peyton may not have the same arm strength as he did in his prime but he's still a damn smart quarterback who creates mismatches by moving his receivers around and changing their routes. In 2004, Peyton Manning had 3 receivers with more than 1000 receiving yards: Marvin Harrison with 1113 and 15 tds, Reggie Wayne with 1210 and 12 tds, and Brandon Stokely with 1077 and 10 tds. It's more than possible that Demaryius Thomas, Eric Decker, and Wes Welker to all eclipse 1000 yards this year as well. Last time I checked Decker won't be docked any points for having the GOAT throwing to him.


Wrap-Up
Are you honestly expecting Peyton Manning to suddenly become a far less accurate and meticulous quarterback? I'm not. Do you honestly think defenses are going to account for Wes Welker aka the greatest slot receiver ever the same way they did for Brandon Stokely last year? I don't. So while some may think Decker will see many less targets, I disagree and think with defenses focusing coverage on Demaryius Thomas and Wes Welker, Decker will find himself using his size as a mismatch over smaller corners, something Peyton Manning loves exploiting.


Conclusion: Where should you draft Eric Decker?
Decker finished as a top 10 receiver last year and there's no reason to believe that he won't finish there again. He's currently the 24th receiver off the board, which is absolutely ridiculous. Hiss blend of size, touchdown ability, and offensive situation means Decker SHOULD go off the board around Vincent Jackson and Dwyane Bowe, but you can get Decker at a discount. I would say the early fifth round would be the ideal spot to take Decker, but I'd have no problem reaching to take Decker...... DECKER

Saturday, July 27, 2013

Rankings, 51-100

This area of rankings is extremely QB and WR heavy. This means you should load up on running backs early because there are many capable wrs and qbs available in rounds 5-7, whereas there aren't many viable running backs. As you can see by these rankings, I would take any of the 5 quarterbacks before any skill position player starting in the 5th round, unless the draft dictates that one of them will be available for your 6th round pick, in which case I'd be fine reaching for Mendenhall or a wideout.


51. Colin Kaepernick - would be much, much higher had Crabtree not torn his Achilles. Kaepernick's value will lie in his legs - with 7 starts last year, he rushed for 415 yards and 5 touchdowns, and added 264 yards and 3 touchdowns in the playoffs. Over a full season, dare I say Kaepernick could eclipse 1000 rushing yards? The 49ers have THE best offensive line in football, adding to his chances for 1000  yards on the ground. When the niners are in the red zone, his legs will be the primary option for touchdowns and the great offensive line will help Kaepernick still get touchdowns when defenses begin to expect him to run.


52. Andrew Luck - Luck is a beast, leading a pretty crappy Colts team to the playoffs last year. The Colts fixed last season's lousy running game by adding Ahmad Bradshaw, so Luck will benefit from teams needing to defend against the run more this year. Luck is surprisingly agile, and got 5 rushing tds last year, and I really like Luck in the red zone. He knows when to take off and run, so I think the touchdowns definitely could be there again this year. Luck reminds me of Peyton Manning, not only because he is a Colt, but because the dude is an absolute genius and super hard worker, and it definitely shows on the field. I believe his completion percentage will improve this year while his yards per completion should decrease a bit with Bruce Arians and his vertical passing game in Arizona this year. With the arrival of Luck's old offense coordinator Pep Hamilton (a Jim Harbaugh disciple), Luck definitely has a chance to be a top 5 fantasy quarterback this year.



53. Russell Wilson - I LOVE Russell Wilson. He's a great leader and an even better quarterback. Who cares that he doesn't have the ideal size for a qb, he's smart enough to overcome it. He played baseball in college and was drafted by the Rockies so you know he's got a great arm, he's really really smart, he's a really hard worker, and he's also a great running qb. As the Seahawks coaching staff began trusting Wilson more as last season went on, the offense really began to click, and Wilson's stats began vastly improving. Through the first 7 weeks of 2012, Wilson had only 1230 yards, 8 touchdowns, and 7 interceptions. He threw 18 touchdowns and 3 picks for the rest of the season, with almost 2000 yards to boot. I think the Seahawks will boast one of the best offenses in football this year, and I think a great idea for drafting would be taking Marshawn Lynch in the 1st round and pairing him with Russell Wilson in the 5th. The Seahawks had the 2nd most rushing yards in all of football last year, and I expect Wilson to improve on the 489 yards he had last year. Lastly, Wilson was the 4th best fantasy qb from week 8 on last year, and he did that as a rookie and without Percy Harvin. Now he's had a full offseason to work with the offense and his brain is a sponge - he absorbs everything - and it's looking like Wilson should be a fantasy STUD this year.


54. Matt Ryan - you know what you're getting with Matt Ryan - lots of throws to 2 elite receivers and an elite tight end, but no production with his legs. Defenses will have to worry about Steven Jackson running the ball more than they did with Turner last year, which should open up the passing lanes just a little more, not that Ryan needs it. Draft with confidence.


55. Robert Griffin III - he's just been cleared to begin football activities, but I have a feeling he'll be throwing the ball more and rushing less this year. His rushing ability have always overshadowed his arm, but he has a great arm and he's a very intelligent passer. I think RGIII has a great chance to be a stud fantasy quarterback even if he doesn't run the ball nearly as much as he did last year. If you draft RGIII, you NEED to be the first drafter to take a 2nd quarterback, which is why I ranked him below the other quarterbacks.



56. Tom Brady - last year, I HAD to have Brady last year, selecting him with the 5th overall pick. Here are the 5 reasons I loved Brady last year - 1. Gronk 2. Aaron Hernandez 3. Wes Welker 4. Brandon Lloyd reuniting with offensive coordinator Josh McDaniels (Lloyd had 1448 yards and 11 touchdowns under McDaniels in 2010 with Kyle Orton as the qb. Tom Brady is just a little better than Orton, I typed sarcastically) 5. The running game was a question mark. Well reasons 2, 3, and 4 are no longer there, reason 1 has chronic back problems so who knows how many games he'll play this year, and reason 5 no longer exists with the emergence of Stevan Ridley and Shane Vereen. I definitely do not love Brady this year, but if he falls far enough and I still don't have a qb, I might ponder taking him.
Update: Tom Brady has been pinpoint in the preseason, not sure why I have doubted him. Previous rank: 90



57. Torrey Smith - in 5 games with 10+ targets last season, Smith had 28 receptions for 497 yards and 4 touchdowns. Anquan Boldin is no longer a Raven, so Smith will get a large volume of targets this year. Pitta's injury hurts Smith, as he is literally the only receiving option for the Ravens other than Ray Rice, so defenses will be focused on Smith 100% of the time.


58. Reggie Wayne - Wayne is the primary receiver for Andrew Luck, and you want to draft primary receivers for great quarterbacks. Wayne turns 35 in the middle of the season though, so he's in the late stages of his career at this point, which is why he's ranked so low.


59. Pierre Garçon - Pierre Boy would ranked much higher if he didn't already have injury concerns this year. When you look at his 2012 stats in games he played, you would think he'd be ranked much higher, but he already stated he won't be 100% in 2013, so I'm wary to take him.



60. Eddie Lacy - he was pretty good but not great in college, but it feels like he was always hampered by injury. With that being said, Lacy is in a great situation to take over the starting role for a great offense in the Packers, so if it looks like Lacy will be the starter, he'll jump up in the rankings. The Packers also spent a draft choice on Johnathan Franklin, so it's important that Lacy doesn't get hurt during training camp and the preseason. The fact is, you want the running back for top offenses in football, and the Packers should remain a top 5 offense this year.


61. Montee Ball - if you could guarantee me 65% of the Broncos touches by running backs for Ball he'd be a 2nd round pick. With his ADP it appears drafters are expecting him to get the bulk of the carries, but I need sure playing time when I'm drafting rookies. Ball's critics in college mostly mentioned the big and great offensive lines at Wisconsin Ball was blessed to run behind, but the Broncos offensive line itself is one of the best if not the best offensive line behind the 49ers. Keep in mind that Ball set the NCAA record for touchdowns in a single season, so if he's the Broncos red zone back he could see 10+ touchdowns.



62. Giovani Bernard - he could catch a lot of passes for the Bengals this year, but don't expect him to take too many carries from BJGE, especially in the red zone. I expect Bernard to be heavily involved in the passing game but BJGE to get 60-70% of carries.



63. Rashard Mendenhall - the Cardinals offensive line will be better than last year, that is for sure. Pass happy Carson Palmer and Bruce Arians with Larry Fitzgerald and breakout candidate wideouts Michael Floyd and Andre Roberts will certainly ensure that Mendenhall won't be seeing any 8 man boxes. Mendenhall is a better receiving back than you think and has a chance of eclipsing 50 receptions as Marcel Reece and Darren McFadden combined for 136!!!! receptions last year. That number is ridiculous.


64. Mark Ingram - third year will be the charm for the former Heisman winner. Chris Ivory is in New York so Ingram is in line for his most touches. The Saints under Sean Payton were actually the most balanced running vs. passing team in the league a couple ago, so Ingram should expect enough touches in a great offense to be a #2 running back this year. He's only 23, give him a chance.



65. Ben Tate - he's healthy this year so he's back to being the best backup in the NFL. Although Shane Vereen and Andre Brown are both ranked higher than Tate, that's because they're in line for a lot of carries despite being the #2 backs. Tate is more of a pure backup who will get some carries, but if Foster misses a game, Tate can step up and put up RB1 numbers, and if Foster misses any lengthy times, Tate could be a top 10 back over that time.

Update: up from 99, might have huge role depending on whether Foster is sidelined


66. Ryan Mathews - Mathews could be a sneaky steal in the 5-6 rounds of drafts. Mathews was the seventh best rusher in ppr leagues in 2011, and in 2012 he had double digit points in 8 of 12 games played. The offensive line sucks and he's a perennial injury risk, but if he puts up RB2 numbers when he plays. He's a risk for sure, but he's a great pick if you've already locked up 2-3 running backs and aren't completely dependent on his production; then Mathews' stats become icing on the cake.


67. Jason Witten - he'll see a lot of targets, catch a lot of passes, and gain a lot of yards, but for some reason he's never been a favorite red zone target for Romo. You know what you're getting when you draft Witten.



68. Tony Gonzalez - he just had of his best statistical seasons in his career at age 36, and he's still a major option in the high powered Falcons offense. Have I ever mentioned anything about drafting players in the best offenses? Maybe I'll write an article about it.



69. Desean Jackson - Chip Kelly's system at Oregon was based on the run as the Ducks ran the ball 685 times last year compared to 250 pass attempts. With Jeremy Maclin out for the season with a torn ACL, I think Desean Jackson is one of the few playmakers left on the Eagles offense, so Chip Kelly will need to utilize his explosiveness if he plans to win games, especially with in an offense that will look to run a lot of plays.



70. Josh Gordon - his 2 game suspension is great news for bargain hunters during draft day. Out of any wideout available this late, he's my pick for most likely to finish as a top 10 system. Norv Turner is going to open the Browns offense up with his vertical passing game, and Gordon should provide huge numbers in the 14 games he does play.



71. Golden Tate - look for Tate, now in his 4th season, to break out this season after he and Russell Wilson had an offseason to get on the same page. After the Seahawks acquired Percy Harvin, it looked like Tate might take a back role in this offense, but after Harvin underwent surgery, Tate will be taking the creative role the Seahawks were designing for Harvin. Russell Wilson is a year older and wiser with a full offseason with Pete Carroll to develop a great playbook, so I'm looking at Tate to be the main beneficiary of their planning.


72. T.Y. Hilton - DRAFT T.Y. Hilton!!! He's got great chemistry with Andrew Luck and the Colts offense is going to be AMAZING this year.



73. Chris Givens - he really should be Sam Bradford's deep threat this year, and rumor on the street is he has an extremely high football IQ. As a later pick, he'll provide a sneaky upside guy with the potential for a long touchdown on any play.




74. Steve Smith - Smith had another 1000 yard season last year, but only 4 touchdowns. Smith is 34 now and has made his career as an explosive (or is it incendiary) receiver, and usually the speed is one of the first skills to go. I definitely don't want to be the guy stuck with Smith as his game erodes, and since this could be the year, I don't think I'll be drafting Smith this year.



75. Wes Welker - Peyton Manning made Brandon Stokely look great in the slot for many years and now he has the best ever slot receiver in Welker. While I don't think he'll rack up as many catches or yards as he did in his heyday with the Patriots, Welker will still be a great pick in ppr leagues. In non-ppr leagues, his draft price is too high for me since I don't see many touchdowns or enough yards to justify taking him before the 5th round.



76. Mike Williams - Williams' career has been a tale of 2 seasons, with successful seasons in his rookie and 3rd years, but an extremely lousy season in his 2nd year. I believe the arrival of Vincent Jackson really helped Mike Williams as it took the pressure off Williams to be the #1 receiver in Tampa. At 6'2, he's a big target in the red zone and compiled 19 red zone targets last year, a top 10 number for wideouts. Available in the middle rounds, Williams has a good chance for 1000 yards and 10 touchdowns with about 70 receptions, but his season will depend on the inconsistent Josh Freeman. If Freeman can improve in his 2nd year under head coach Greg Schiano, Williams numbers could rival Vincent Jackson.




77. James Jones - I don't think he'll attain his 2012 touchdown total of 14, but he could get double digit tds, especially if Jordy Nelson misses time. His weekly stats will be touchdown dependent, as in 2012 he had 11 weeks with less than 65 yards.



78. Stevie Johnson - I actually kinda like Stevie this year. He posted his third straight 1000 yard season in 2012 and the biggest deterrent to his success (the inconsistent and errant-throwing Ryan Fitzpatrick) is no longer a Bill. Kevin Kolb and EJ Manual are better quarterbacks than Fitzpatrick, so there should be more consistency to the Bills passing game this year. When you combine that with the talented CJ Spiller drawing pressure from opposing defenses, as well as their drafting of talented wideouts such as Robert Woods, Stevie Johnson should see less focus from defenses. The problem with Johnson is a lot of his value was derived from him being the only wide receiver for the Bills so he received a high volume of targets. It will be interesting to see how the better quarterback play and the better surrounding cast affects Johnson this year.


79. Cecil Shorts - with his first real action in the NFL, Shorts broke out, surprising fantasy players everywhere that a receiver on the lowly Jaguars could put up nice stats when Chad Henne was the quarterback. After week 8, he finished with 4 100 yard receiving games and had 10 or more fantasy points 6 times until a concussion cut his season short (pun intended). I'm going to be playing close attention to the Jags qb battle this summer; if Gabbert wins the qb competition I don't want any part of any Jags, but if Henne wins, I may target Shorts. The Jaguars will be running a fast paced offense this year in order to keep defenses on their toes, and with a healthy MJD drawing attention, Shorts could have a great year, as long as Blaine Gabbert is not the quarterback.


80. Antonio Brown - I think it'll be interesting to see Brown's production in the absence of field stretcher Mike Wallace. I personally think the Steelers are going to be a pretty bad team this year with a good chance of finishing behind the Browns in the AFC North, so I'm not going to be owning Brown to see how he does sans Wallace.



81. DeAngelo Williams - Williams is an intriguing fantasy player. He can break runs for long gains, but he needs a lot of touches to break those long runs. Stewart is hurt to start the summer, but I'm not sure he misses enough time to make Williams a significant, must-start running back. 


82. Daryl Richardson - with Pead suspended for the first game of the season, Richardson will get the first crack at the starting job for the Rams with Isaiah Pead suspended for the first game, but coach Fisher has already stated there will be a RBBC in St. Louis, so I wouldn't trust DRich to be much.



83. Bilal Powell - he had some positive flashes for the Jets in his rookie season, and Chris Ivory is an injury sure to happen. Mark this down right now, Powell will start more games for the Jets this year than any other back. Yes I have ranked Powell before Chris Ivory, yes I would take Powell, Helu, and Joique Bell before Ivory, and no Chris Ivory is not in my top 100.


84. Matthew Stafford - he's a season removed from throwing for 5000 yards, he still has Calvin Johnson, and the Lions didn't add Reggie Bush for his rushing ability. Stafford has seen his draft position drop 4-5 rounds since last year, partially because of his "subpar" year last year (4967 yards but a dip from 41 to 20 touchdowns), meaning he's a great value pick this year.


85. Tony Romo - great fantasy qb, not so great real life quarterback. You know what you're getting with Romo, but the glut of quarterbacks this year makes Romo a great value pick in the mid-later rounds of drafts. He's got tons of weapons, and the offensive line should be at least a little improved with the drafting of Travis Frederick.



86. Jermichael Finley - he's flashed the potential, and there are reports that the light bulb has gone off in Finley's head. 2013 is a contract year for Finley and he's shown up in great shape, so the extra motivation from it being his contract year, plus the departure of Jennings and early injury worries for Nelson should lead to a career year for Finley.


87. Zach Sudfeld - 6’7 rookie out of Nevada won the offseason lotto for undrafted free agents, as Gronk has gone under the knife a couple times this season, and Aaron Hernandez has presumably been having his derriere checked for knives. Sudfeld is my best bet for tight end to come out of nowhere and dominate, not unlike Gronk a few years ago. Like Gronk, his college years were riddled with injuries, which probably led to him being undrafted, though it is important to note that he was injury-free his senior year of college. He ran a 4.71 40 during his pro day, just a tad slower than top tight end draftee Tyler Eifert (4.68) and a little faster than the second tight end off the board, Zach Ertz (4.73). He has been working with the Patriots first team offense, and Sudfeld has flashed great hands in the preseason.



88. Julius Thomas - boy I love this guy. After spending most of his first two seasons in the league hurt, he started getting first team reps with the Broncos this offseason with Joel Dreeson hurt. If this 6’5 physical FREAK becomes the starter, as I think he will, it’s not difficult to see him ascending to a top 5 tight end. Look at the numbers Dallas Clark put up with Peyton Manning in the three seasons from 07-09: 235 receptions, 2570 yards, 27 tds. While there are many mouths to feed in Denver, Peyton Manning has always been a great distributor of the football, and there’s no reason to believe that won’t continue this year. The addition of the best slot receiver in the NFL to two great outside receivers should only help open up the middle of the field for Thomas. He is an example of a delicious low risk, high reward player to target at the end of drafts.


89. Jordan Cameron - he's huge and Norv Turner has a history of turning no name tight ends into STUDS. Cameron will be the primary red zone target for the Browns, and I've mentioned before that the Browns should have one of the better offenses in football. Cameron's stock is rising because of two touchdowns and a lot of targets in his first two preseason games. I'm very excited to own Cameron on a lot of teams this year.


90. Coby Fleener - the second year, 6'6 tight end will benefit greatly from his old Stanford Offensive Coordinator Pep Hamilton, as well as his old Stanford quarterback Andrew Luck. I expect the Colts to employ a lot of tight end sets this year, shifting Fleener and fellow second year tight end Dwayne Allen all around the field to create mismatches. 



91. Greg Olsen - he was the number 6 tight end in fantasy in 2012, and with tight end depth depleted, he should be taken in rounds 7-8.



92. Mohamed Sanu - this Rutgers grad is bound to become a favorite target for Andy Dalton. The Bengals figure to be a heavy passing team under offensive coordinator Jay Gruden, and trust me, Sanu will see plenty of catches while defenses shade towards AJ Green. Sanu isn't fast but he's a slippery receiver who will find himself open underneath. He is an awesome athlete at 6'2 who could have been a stud safety as well. In the first three games that the Bengals starting featuring Sanu, he caught 4 touchdowns with 19 targets. He's bound to be Andy Dalton's favorite checkdown target this year, so Sanu will be valuable in a ppr. 


93. Kenbrell Thompkins - it's looking more and more like he'll be the top outside receiver for the Patriots. The undrafted rookie clearly has Brady's trust as he hasn't been dropping anything in camp. He's a great route runner, and at his current value, drafters shouldn't be wary of Brandon Lloyd or Chad Ochocinco repeats, since Thompkins isn't being picked in the 3/4 rounds.




94. Emmanuel Sanders - I expect a career year for Sanders. At his best, his numbers could resemble Antonio Brown's 1100 yards and 2 touchdowns from 2011, but I'd say the yardage totals are a little high and the touchdown totals are a little low. He could be a great surprise pick in ppr leagues.




95. Greg Little - Little is a 6'2, third year receiver who typically isn't even drafted even though the Browns have Norv Turner as the new offensive coordinator. Little is going to play in the best offense he ever had and he's been working out plenty with Brandon Weeden this offseason. Josh Gordon is suspended for the first 2 games, so Little will get the first crack at targets for the Browns vertical offense.


96. Joique Bell - he's a better, more well-rounded running back than Leshoure and when the Lions realize that, Bell will get goal line and third down work, and for an offense like the Lions, that is a high volume role. Leshoure just really isn't that good. Reggie Bush has never been the image of healthiness, so don't be surprised if Bell has a HUGE role in the Lions offense by midway through the season.


97. Andre Roberts - the Cardinals are going to run a ton of 3 wide receiver sets, and Roberts is a smart receiver with great intangibles. With defenses focusing on Fitzgerald and Floyd, Roberts will be Palmer's favorite target and a ppr stud. 



98. Michael Floyd - I cannot stress this enough, the Cardinals are going to have a great offense this year. I feel like Bruce Arians and Carson Palmer are a perfect match and the Cardinals receivers are certainly going to benefit. Floyd is a 2012 first round pick and combines speed and agility with a 6'3 body. This receiving corps that Arizona has of Fitgerald, Floyd, Roberts, and Housler is the best Palmer has ever played with and I expect him to shine! Let the Palmer love extend over Floyd.


99. Vincent Brown - a great route runner and pass catcher but injury prone, Brown will see a lot of targets in the new Chargers underneath passing game. Brown was everyone's sleeper in 2012 before fracturing his ankle, and he is generally overlooked due to his injury history. In the later rounds however, you should be hunting for potential breakouts, and if Brown stays healthy, he has a great shot at 80+ receptions.
Update: Danario Alexander tore his ACL and is out for the season


100. Roy Helu - count me as someone who doesn't trust Mike Shanahan to rely as heavily on Alfred Morris as he did last year. Helu is a multi-dimensional back who can catch passes and he's healthy. Just throwing this out there, but don't be shocked when Helu is the starter by week 5. Draft him and look like a genius and a soothsayer once he gets the job.