Eric Decker

I had the pleasure of owning Eric Decker last year to the chagrin of my housemate and girlfriend. Every time the Broncos game was broadcast in the New York/New Jersey area, I would constantly yell "DECKER" for almost every Broncos offensive play when I saw Peyton Manning looking his way. Well they heard many "DECKER"s, as he posted 85 catches on 123 targets with 13 touchdowns, way past the point where it became annoying, but whatever... DECKER. When you start digging deeper into Decker and his numbers, both recent and at the collegiate level, it becomes apparent that Eric Decker is an underrated, elite receiver who should be drafted way earlier than his current ADP of 63.

Lets start with a refresher video of Decker in 2012 (I'd suggest muting the video and playing a different song):

What you see there is a lot of perfect passes from a Mr. P. Manning and some gorgeous catches by Decker. Watch the clip starting at 1:07..... I'm waiting...... ok so yea, that was perfection. 

Touchdown Ability
Decker is a 6'3 physical receiver who uses his size to his advantage over smaller corners, especially in the red zone. In 2012, Decker led the NFL in red zone targets with 25 and red zone touchdowns with 12. He clearly has the trust of Peyton Manning, especially as defenses zone in on the more talented Demaryius Thomas. Manning is the GOAT at changing routes and plays at the line of scrimmage to exploit mismatches, and Decker's height difference over defenders allows him to be Manning's go-to guy in the red zone. He finished 2012 with 13 touchdowns and he was a trip away from being tied for the league lead, double digit touchdowns should be a lock for Decker.


The Wes Welker Effect
When Wes Welker signed with the Broncos, people were awestruck thinking about what Welker could do with Peyton Manning. Manning made Brandon Stokely relevant out of the slot for a number of years, so the addition of the best slot receiver in history would be a match made in heaven. Targets don't appear out of nowhere, unless you expect the Broncos to throw the ball more than the 588 times they did in 2012 (1090 total plays - 54%) which is a possibility, but it's not like they're going to blow that number out of the water. Welker will eat up all of Stokely's 57 targets from 2012, but Welker is used to seeing 100+ targets. The question then is "where does Welker get his 43+ more targets?" and the popular answer is Decker, but I'm inclined to disagree. For starters, Bronco tight ends Jacob Tamme and Joel Dreeson combined for 143 targets last year, a number that is sure to decrease with the emergence of Julius Thomas at tight end. If you give Bronco tight ends 100 targets this year, then boom Welker's got his 100 targets. The fact is the drop in Decker's targets won't be nearly enough to offset the increased productivity Decker should receive from Welker's presence. What I mean by that is Wes Welker is the greatest slot receiver of all time that has now paired with Peyton Manning, and defenses know that. They're not going to treat Welker like they treated Stokely last year, they're going to have to focus every week on stopping Welker.


Peyton Manning
Reggie Wayne averaged 1246 as the number 2 receiver over the 5 seasons from 2004-2008. Peyton may not have the same arm strength as he did in his prime but he's still a damn smart quarterback who creates mismatches by moving his receivers around and changing their routes. In 2004, Peyton Manning had 3 receivers with more than 1000 receiving yards: Marvin Harrison with 1113 and 15 tds, Reggie Wayne with 1210 and 12 tds, and Brandon Stokely with 1077 and 10 tds. It's more than possible that Demaryius Thomas, Eric Decker, and Wes Welker to all eclipse 1000 yards this year as well. Last time I checked Decker won't be docked any points for having the GOAT throwing to him.


Wrap-Up
Are you honestly expecting Peyton Manning to suddenly become a far less accurate and meticulous quarterback? I'm not. Do you honestly think defenses are going to account for Wes Welker aka the greatest slot receiver ever the same way they did for Brandon Stokely last year? I don't. So while some may think Decker will see many less targets, I disagree and think with defenses focusing coverage on Demaryius Thomas and Wes Welker, Decker will find himself using his size as a mismatch over smaller corners, something Peyton Manning loves exploiting.


Conclusion: Where should you draft Eric Decker?
Decker finished as a top 10 receiver last year and there's no reason to believe that he won't finish there again. He's currently the 24th receiver off the board, which is absolutely ridiculous. Hiss blend of size, touchdown ability, and offensive situation means Decker SHOULD go off the board around Vincent Jackson and Dwyane Bowe, but you can get Decker at a discount. I would say the early fifth round would be the ideal spot to take Decker, but I'd have no problem reaching to take Decker...... DECKER