51. Colin Kaepernick - would be much, much higher had Crabtree not torn his Achilles. Kaepernick's value will lie in his legs - with 7 starts last year, he rushed for 415 yards and 5 touchdowns, and added 264 yards and 3 touchdowns in the playoffs. Over a full season, dare I say Kaepernick could eclipse 1000 rushing yards? The 49ers have THE best offensive line in football, adding to his chances for 1000 yards on the ground. When the niners are in the red zone, his legs will be the primary option for touchdowns and the great offensive line will help Kaepernick still get touchdowns when defenses begin to expect him to run.
52. Andrew Luck - Luck is a beast, leading a pretty crappy Colts team to the playoffs last year. The Colts fixed last season's lousy running game by adding Ahmad Bradshaw, so Luck will benefit from teams needing to defend against the run more this year. Luck is surprisingly agile, and got 5 rushing tds last year, and I really like Luck in the red zone. He knows when to take off and run, so I think the touchdowns definitely could be there again this year. Luck reminds me of Peyton Manning, not only because he is a Colt, but because the dude is an absolute genius and super hard worker, and it definitely shows on the field. I believe his completion percentage will improve this year while his yards per completion should decrease a bit with Bruce Arians and his vertical passing game in Arizona this year. With the arrival of Luck's old offense coordinator Pep Hamilton (a Jim Harbaugh disciple), Luck definitely has a chance to be a top 5 fantasy quarterback this year.
53. Russell Wilson - I LOVE Russell Wilson. He's a great leader and an even better quarterback. Who cares that he doesn't have the ideal size for a qb, he's smart enough to overcome it. He played baseball in college and was drafted by the Rockies so you know he's got a great arm, he's really really smart, he's a really hard worker, and he's also a great running qb. As the Seahawks coaching staff began trusting Wilson more as last season went on, the offense really began to click, and Wilson's stats began vastly improving. Through the first 7 weeks of 2012, Wilson had only 1230 yards, 8 touchdowns, and 7 interceptions. He threw 18 touchdowns and 3 picks for the rest of the season, with almost 2000 yards to boot. I think the Seahawks will boast one of the best offenses in football this year, and I think a great idea for drafting would be taking Marshawn Lynch in the 1st round and pairing him with Russell Wilson in the 5th. The Seahawks had the 2nd most rushing yards in all of football last year, and I expect Wilson to improve on the 489 yards he had last year. Lastly, Wilson was the 4th best fantasy qb from week 8 on last year, and he did that as a rookie and without Percy Harvin. Now he's had a full offseason to work with the offense and his brain is a sponge - he absorbs everything - and it's looking like Wilson should be a fantasy STUD this year.
54. Matt Ryan - you know what you're getting with Matt Ryan - lots of throws to 2 elite receivers and an elite tight end, but no production with his legs. Defenses will have to worry about Steven Jackson running the ball more than they did with Turner last year, which should open up the passing lanes just a little more, not that Ryan needs it. Draft with confidence.
55. Robert Griffin III - he's just been cleared to begin football activities, but I have a feeling he'll be throwing the ball more and rushing less this year. His rushing ability have always overshadowed his arm, but he has a great arm and he's a very intelligent passer. I think RGIII has a great chance to be a stud fantasy quarterback even if he doesn't run the ball nearly as much as he did last year. If you draft RGIII, you NEED to be the first drafter to take a 2nd quarterback, which is why I ranked him below the other quarterbacks.
56. Tom Brady - last year, I HAD to have Brady last year, selecting him with the 5th overall pick. Here are the 5 reasons I loved Brady last year - 1. Gronk 2. Aaron Hernandez 3. Wes Welker 4. Brandon Lloyd reuniting with offensive coordinator Josh McDaniels (Lloyd had 1448 yards and 11 touchdowns under McDaniels in 2010 with Kyle Orton as the qb. Tom Brady is just a little better than Orton, I typed sarcastically) 5. The running game was a question mark. Well reasons 2, 3, and 4 are no longer there, reason 1 has chronic back problems so who knows how many games he'll play this year, and reason 5 no longer exists with the emergence of Stevan Ridley and Shane Vereen. I definitely do not love Brady this year, but if he falls far enough and I still don't have a qb, I might ponder taking him.
Update: Tom Brady has been pinpoint in the preseason, not sure why I have doubted him. Previous rank: 90
Update: up from 99, might have huge role depending on whether Foster is sidelined
67. Jason Witten - he'll see a lot of targets, catch a lot of passes, and gain a lot of yards, but for some reason he's never been a favorite red zone target for Romo. You know what you're getting when you draft Witten.
57. Torrey Smith - in 5 games with 10+ targets last season, Smith had 28 receptions for 497 yards and 4 touchdowns. Anquan Boldin is no longer a Raven, so Smith will get a large volume of targets this year. Pitta's injury hurts Smith, as he is literally the only receiving option for the Ravens other than Ray Rice, so defenses will be focused on Smith 100% of the time.
58. Reggie Wayne - Wayne is the primary receiver for Andrew Luck, and you want to draft primary receivers for great quarterbacks. Wayne turns 35 in the middle of the season though, so he's in the late stages of his career at this point, which is why he's ranked so low.
59. Pierre Garçon - Pierre Boy would ranked much higher if he didn't already have injury concerns this year. When you look at his 2012 stats in games he played, you would think he'd be ranked much higher, but he already stated he won't be 100% in 2013, so I'm wary to take him.
60. Eddie Lacy - he was pretty good but not great in college, but it feels like he was always hampered by injury. With that being said, Lacy is in a great situation to take over the starting role for a great offense in the Packers, so if it looks like Lacy will be the starter, he'll jump up in the rankings. The Packers also spent a draft choice on Johnathan Franklin, so it's important that Lacy doesn't get hurt during training camp and the preseason. The fact is, you want the running back for top offenses in football, and the Packers should remain a top 5 offense this year.
61. Montee Ball - if you could guarantee me 65% of the Broncos touches by running backs for Ball he'd be a 2nd round pick. With his ADP it appears drafters are expecting him to get the bulk of the carries, but I need sure playing time when I'm drafting rookies. Ball's critics in college mostly mentioned the big and great offensive lines at Wisconsin Ball was blessed to run behind, but the Broncos offensive line itself is one of the best if not the best offensive line behind the 49ers. Keep in mind that Ball set the NCAA record for touchdowns in a single season, so if he's the Broncos red zone back he could see 10+ touchdowns.
62. Giovani Bernard - he could catch a lot of passes for the Bengals this year, but don't expect him to take too many carries from BJGE, especially in the red zone. I expect Bernard to be heavily involved in the passing game but BJGE to get 60-70% of carries.
63. Rashard Mendenhall - the Cardinals offensive line will be better than last year, that is for sure. Pass happy Carson Palmer and Bruce Arians with Larry Fitzgerald and breakout candidate wideouts Michael Floyd and Andre Roberts will certainly ensure that Mendenhall won't be seeing any 8 man boxes. Mendenhall is a better receiving back than you think and has a chance of eclipsing 50 receptions as Marcel Reece and Darren McFadden combined for 136!!!! receptions last year. That number is ridiculous.
64. Mark Ingram - third year will be the charm for the former Heisman winner. Chris Ivory is in New York so Ingram is in line for his most touches. The Saints under Sean Payton were actually the most balanced running vs. passing team in the league a couple ago, so Ingram should expect enough touches in a great offense to be a #2 running back this year. He's only 23, give him a chance.
65. Ben Tate - he's healthy this year so he's back to being the best backup in the NFL. Although Shane Vereen and Andre Brown are both ranked higher than Tate, that's because they're in line for a lot of carries despite being the #2 backs. Tate is more of a pure backup who will get some carries, but if Foster misses a game, Tate can step up and put up RB1 numbers, and if Foster misses any lengthy times, Tate could be a top 10 back over that time.
Update: up from 99, might have huge role depending on whether Foster is sidelined
66. Ryan Mathews - Mathews could be a sneaky steal in the 5-6 rounds of drafts. Mathews was the seventh best rusher in ppr leagues in 2011, and in 2012 he had double digit points in 8 of 12 games played. The offensive line sucks and he's a perennial injury risk, but if he puts up RB2 numbers when he plays. He's a risk for sure, but he's a great pick if you've already locked up 2-3 running backs and aren't completely dependent on his production; then Mathews' stats become icing on the cake.
67. Jason Witten - he'll see a lot of targets, catch a lot of passes, and gain a lot of yards, but for some reason he's never been a favorite red zone target for Romo. You know what you're getting when you draft Witten.
68. Tony Gonzalez - he just had of his best statistical seasons in his career at age 36, and he's still a major option in the high powered Falcons offense. Have I ever mentioned anything about drafting players in the best offenses? Maybe I'll write an article about it.
69. Desean Jackson - Chip Kelly's system at Oregon was based on the run as the Ducks ran the ball 685 times last year compared to 250 pass attempts. With Jeremy Maclin out for the season with a torn ACL, I think Desean Jackson is one of the few playmakers left on the Eagles offense, so Chip Kelly will need to utilize his explosiveness if he plans to win games, especially with in an offense that will look to run a lot of plays.
70. Josh Gordon - his 2 game suspension is great news for bargain hunters during draft day. Out of any wideout available this late, he's my pick for most likely to finish as a top 10 system. Norv Turner is going to open the Browns offense up with his vertical passing game, and Gordon should provide huge numbers in the 14 games he does play.
71. Golden Tate - look for Tate, now in his 4th season, to break out this season after he and Russell Wilson had an offseason to get on the same page. After the Seahawks acquired Percy Harvin, it looked like Tate might take a back role in this offense, but after Harvin underwent surgery, Tate will be taking the creative role the Seahawks were designing for Harvin. Russell Wilson is a year older and wiser with a full offseason with Pete Carroll to develop a great playbook, so I'm looking at Tate to be the main beneficiary of their planning.
72. T.Y. Hilton - DRAFT T.Y. Hilton!!! He's got great chemistry with Andrew Luck and the Colts offense is going to be AMAZING this year.
73. Chris Givens - he really should be Sam Bradford's deep threat this year, and rumor on the street is he has an extremely high football IQ. As a later pick, he'll provide a sneaky upside guy with the potential for a long touchdown on any play.
74. Steve Smith - Smith had another 1000 yard season last year, but only 4 touchdowns. Smith is 34 now and has made his career as an explosive (or is it incendiary) receiver, and usually the speed is one of the first skills to go. I definitely don't want to be the guy stuck with Smith as his game erodes, and since this could be the year, I don't think I'll be drafting Smith this year.
75. Wes Welker - Peyton Manning made Brandon Stokely look great in the slot for many years and now he has the best ever slot receiver in Welker. While I don't think he'll rack up as many catches or yards as he did in his heyday with the Patriots, Welker will still be a great pick in ppr leagues. In non-ppr leagues, his draft price is too high for me since I don't see many touchdowns or enough yards to justify taking him before the 5th round.
76. Mike Williams - Williams' career has been a tale of 2 seasons, with successful seasons in his rookie and 3rd years, but an extremely lousy season in his 2nd year. I believe the arrival of Vincent Jackson really helped Mike Williams as it took the pressure off Williams to be the #1 receiver in Tampa. At 6'2, he's a big target in the red zone and compiled 19 red zone targets last year, a top 10 number for wideouts. Available in the middle rounds, Williams has a good chance for 1000 yards and 10 touchdowns with about 70 receptions, but his season will depend on the inconsistent Josh Freeman. If Freeman can improve in his 2nd year under head coach Greg Schiano, Williams numbers could rival Vincent Jackson.
77. James Jones - I don't think he'll attain his 2012 touchdown total of 14, but he could get double digit tds, especially if Jordy Nelson misses time. His weekly stats will be touchdown dependent, as in 2012 he had 11 weeks with less than 65 yards.
78. Stevie Johnson - I actually kinda like Stevie this year. He posted his third straight 1000 yard season in 2012 and the biggest deterrent to his success (the inconsistent and errant-throwing Ryan Fitzpatrick) is no longer a Bill. Kevin Kolb and EJ Manual are better quarterbacks than Fitzpatrick, so there should be more consistency to the Bills passing game this year. When you combine that with the talented CJ Spiller drawing pressure from opposing defenses, as well as their drafting of talented wideouts such as Robert Woods, Stevie Johnson should see less focus from defenses. The problem with Johnson is a lot of his value was derived from him being the only wide receiver for the Bills so he received a high volume of targets. It will be interesting to see how the better quarterback play and the better surrounding cast affects Johnson this year.
79. Cecil Shorts - with his first real action in the NFL, Shorts broke out, surprising fantasy players everywhere that a receiver on the lowly Jaguars could put up nice stats when Chad Henne was the quarterback. After week 8, he finished with 4 100 yard receiving games and had 10 or more fantasy points 6 times until a concussion cut his season short (pun intended). I'm going to be playing close attention to the Jags qb battle this summer; if Gabbert wins the qb competition I don't want any part of any Jags, but if Henne wins, I may target Shorts. The Jaguars will be running a fast paced offense this year in order to keep defenses on their toes, and with a healthy MJD drawing attention, Shorts could have a great year, as long as Blaine Gabbert is not the quarterback.
80. Antonio Brown - I think it'll be interesting to see Brown's production in the absence of field stretcher Mike Wallace. I personally think the Steelers are going to be a pretty bad team this year with a good chance of finishing behind the Browns in the AFC North, so I'm not going to be owning Brown to see how he does sans Wallace.
81. DeAngelo Williams - Williams is an intriguing fantasy player. He can break runs for long gains, but he needs a lot of touches to break those long runs. Stewart is hurt to start the summer, but I'm not sure he misses enough time to make Williams a significant, must-start running back.
82. Daryl Richardson - with Pead suspended for the first game of the season, Richardson will get the first crack at the starting job for the Rams with Isaiah Pead suspended for the first game, but coach Fisher has already stated there will be a RBBC in St. Louis, so I wouldn't trust DRich to be much.
83. Bilal Powell - he had some positive flashes for the Jets in his rookie season, and Chris Ivory is an injury sure to happen. Mark this down right now, Powell will start more games for the Jets this year than any other back. Yes I have ranked Powell before Chris Ivory, yes I would take Powell, Helu, and Joique Bell before Ivory, and no Chris Ivory is not in my top 100.
84. Matthew Stafford - he's a season removed from throwing for 5000 yards, he still has Calvin Johnson, and the Lions didn't add Reggie Bush for his rushing ability. Stafford has seen his draft position drop 4-5 rounds since last year, partially because of his "subpar" year last year (4967 yards but a dip from 41 to 20 touchdowns), meaning he's a great value pick this year.
85. Tony Romo - great fantasy qb, not so great real life quarterback. You know what you're getting with Romo, but the glut of quarterbacks this year makes Romo a great value pick in the mid-later rounds of drafts. He's got tons of weapons, and the offensive line should be at least a little improved with the drafting of Travis Frederick.
86. Jermichael Finley - he's flashed the potential, and there are reports that the light bulb has gone off in Finley's head. 2013 is a contract year for Finley and he's shown up in great shape, so the extra motivation from it being his contract year, plus the departure of Jennings and early injury worries for Nelson should lead to a career year for Finley.
87. Zach Sudfeld - 6’7 rookie out of Nevada won the offseason lotto for undrafted free agents, as Gronk has gone under the knife a couple times this season, and Aaron Hernandez has presumably been having his derriere checked for knives. Sudfeld is my best bet for tight end to come out of nowhere and dominate, not unlike Gronk a few years ago. Like Gronk, his college years were riddled with injuries, which probably led to him being undrafted, though it is important to note that he was injury-free his senior year of college. He ran a 4.71 40 during his pro day, just a tad slower than top tight end draftee Tyler Eifert (4.68) and a little faster than the second tight end off the board, Zach Ertz (4.73). He has been working with the Patriots first team offense, and Sudfeld has flashed great hands in the preseason.
87. Zach Sudfeld - 6’7 rookie out of Nevada won the offseason lotto for undrafted free agents, as Gronk has gone under the knife a couple times this season, and Aaron Hernandez has presumably been having his derriere checked for knives. Sudfeld is my best bet for tight end to come out of nowhere and dominate, not unlike Gronk a few years ago. Like Gronk, his college years were riddled with injuries, which probably led to him being undrafted, though it is important to note that he was injury-free his senior year of college. He ran a 4.71 40 during his pro day, just a tad slower than top tight end draftee Tyler Eifert (4.68) and a little faster than the second tight end off the board, Zach Ertz (4.73). He has been working with the Patriots first team offense, and Sudfeld has flashed great hands in the preseason.
88. Julius Thomas - boy I love this guy. After spending most of his first two seasons in the league hurt, he started getting first team reps with the Broncos this offseason with Joel Dreeson hurt. If this 6’5 physical FREAK becomes the starter, as I think he will, it’s not difficult to see him ascending to a top 5 tight end. Look at the numbers Dallas Clark put up with Peyton Manning in the three seasons from 07-09: 235 receptions, 2570 yards, 27 tds. While there are many mouths to feed in Denver, Peyton Manning has always been a great distributor of the football, and there’s no reason to believe that won’t continue this year. The addition of the best slot receiver in the NFL to two great outside receivers should only help open up the middle of the field for Thomas. He is an example of a delicious low risk, high reward player to target at the end of drafts.
89. Jordan Cameron - he's huge and Norv Turner has a history of turning no name tight ends into STUDS. Cameron will be the primary red zone target for the Browns, and I've mentioned before that the Browns should have one of the better offenses in football. Cameron's stock is rising because of two touchdowns and a lot of targets in his first two preseason games. I'm very excited to own Cameron on a lot of teams this year.
90. Coby Fleener - the second year, 6'6 tight end will benefit greatly from his old Stanford Offensive Coordinator Pep Hamilton, as well as his old Stanford quarterback Andrew Luck. I expect the Colts to employ a lot of tight end sets this year, shifting Fleener and fellow second year tight end Dwayne Allen all around the field to create mismatches.
91. Greg Olsen - he was the number 6 tight end in fantasy in 2012, and with tight end depth depleted, he should be taken in rounds 7-8.
92. Mohamed Sanu - this Rutgers grad is bound to become a favorite target for Andy Dalton. The Bengals figure to be a heavy passing team under offensive coordinator Jay Gruden, and trust me, Sanu will see plenty of catches while defenses shade towards AJ Green. Sanu isn't fast but he's a slippery receiver who will find himself open underneath. He is an awesome athlete at 6'2 who could have been a stud safety as well. In the first three games that the Bengals starting featuring Sanu, he caught 4 touchdowns with 19 targets. He's bound to be Andy Dalton's favorite checkdown target this year, so Sanu will be valuable in a ppr.
93. Kenbrell Thompkins - it's looking more and more like he'll be the top outside receiver for the Patriots. The undrafted rookie clearly has Brady's trust as he hasn't been dropping anything in camp. He's a great route runner, and at his current value, drafters shouldn't be wary of Brandon Lloyd or Chad Ochocinco repeats, since Thompkins isn't being picked in the 3/4 rounds.
94. Emmanuel Sanders - I expect a career year for Sanders. At his best, his numbers could resemble Antonio Brown's 1100 yards and 2 touchdowns from 2011, but I'd say the yardage totals are a little high and the touchdown totals are a little low. He could be a great surprise pick in ppr leagues.
95. Greg Little - Little is a 6'2, third year receiver who typically isn't even drafted even though the Browns have Norv Turner as the new offensive coordinator. Little is going to play in the best offense he ever had and he's been working out plenty with Brandon Weeden this offseason. Josh Gordon is suspended for the first 2 games, so Little will get the first crack at targets for the Browns vertical offense.
96. Joique Bell - he's a better, more well-rounded running back than Leshoure and when the Lions realize that, Bell will get goal line and third down work, and for an offense like the Lions, that is a high volume role. Leshoure just really isn't that good. Reggie Bush has never been the image of healthiness, so don't be surprised if Bell has a HUGE role in the Lions offense by midway through the season.
97. Andre Roberts - the Cardinals are going to run a ton of 3 wide receiver sets, and Roberts is a smart receiver with great intangibles. With defenses focusing on Fitzgerald and Floyd, Roberts will be Palmer's favorite target and a ppr stud.
98. Michael Floyd - I cannot stress this enough, the Cardinals are going to have a great offense this year. I feel like Bruce Arians and Carson Palmer are a perfect match and the Cardinals receivers are certainly going to benefit. Floyd is a 2012 first round pick and combines speed and agility with a 6'3 body. This receiving corps that Arizona has of Fitgerald, Floyd, Roberts, and Housler is the best Palmer has ever played with and I expect him to shine! Let the Palmer love extend over Floyd.
99. Vincent Brown - a great route runner and pass catcher but injury prone, Brown will see a lot of targets in the new Chargers underneath passing game. Brown was everyone's sleeper in 2012 before fracturing his ankle, and he is generally overlooked due to his injury history. In the later rounds however, you should be hunting for potential breakouts, and if Brown stays healthy, he has a great shot at 80+ receptions.
Update: Danario Alexander tore his ACL and is out for the season
100. Roy Helu - count me as someone who doesn't trust Mike Shanahan to rely as heavily on Alfred Morris as he did last year. Helu is a multi-dimensional back who can catch passes and he's healthy. Just throwing this out there, but don't be shocked when Helu is the starter by week 5. Draft him and look like a genius and a soothsayer once he gets the job.
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