Eric Decker

I had the pleasure of owning Eric Decker last year to the chagrin of my housemate and girlfriend. Every time the Broncos game was broadcast in the New York/New Jersey area, I would constantly yell "DECKER" for almost every Broncos offensive play when I saw Peyton Manning looking his way. Well they heard many "DECKER"s, as he posted 85 catches on 123 targets with 13 touchdowns, way past the point where it became annoying, but whatever... DECKER. When you start digging deeper into Decker and his numbers, both recent and at the collegiate level, it becomes apparent that Eric Decker is an underrated, elite receiver who should be drafted way earlier than his current ADP of 63.

Lets start with a refresher video of Decker in 2012 (I'd suggest muting the video and playing a different song):

What you see there is a lot of perfect passes from a Mr. P. Manning and some gorgeous catches by Decker. Watch the clip starting at 1:07..... I'm waiting...... ok so yea, that was perfection. 

Touchdown Ability
Decker is a 6'3 physical receiver who uses his size to his advantage over smaller corners, especially in the red zone. In 2012, Decker led the NFL in red zone targets with 25 and red zone touchdowns with 12. He clearly has the trust of Peyton Manning, especially as defenses zone in on the more talented Demaryius Thomas. Manning is the GOAT at changing routes and plays at the line of scrimmage to exploit mismatches, and Decker's height difference over defenders allows him to be Manning's go-to guy in the red zone. He finished 2012 with 13 touchdowns and he was a trip away from being tied for the league lead, double digit touchdowns should be a lock for Decker.


The Wes Welker Effect
When Wes Welker signed with the Broncos, people were awestruck thinking about what Welker could do with Peyton Manning. Manning made Brandon Stokely relevant out of the slot for a number of years, so the addition of the best slot receiver in history would be a match made in heaven. Targets don't appear out of nowhere, unless you expect the Broncos to throw the ball more than the 588 times they did in 2012 (1090 total plays - 54%) which is a possibility, but it's not like they're going to blow that number out of the water. Welker will eat up all of Stokely's 57 targets from 2012, but Welker is used to seeing 100+ targets. The question then is "where does Welker get his 43+ more targets?" and the popular answer is Decker, but I'm inclined to disagree. For starters, Bronco tight ends Jacob Tamme and Joel Dreeson combined for 143 targets last year, a number that is sure to decrease with the emergence of Julius Thomas at tight end. If you give Bronco tight ends 100 targets this year, then boom Welker's got his 100 targets. The fact is the drop in Decker's targets won't be nearly enough to offset the increased productivity Decker should receive from Welker's presence. What I mean by that is Wes Welker is the greatest slot receiver of all time that has now paired with Peyton Manning, and defenses know that. They're not going to treat Welker like they treated Stokely last year, they're going to have to focus every week on stopping Welker.


Peyton Manning
Reggie Wayne averaged 1246 as the number 2 receiver over the 5 seasons from 2004-2008. Peyton may not have the same arm strength as he did in his prime but he's still a damn smart quarterback who creates mismatches by moving his receivers around and changing their routes. In 2004, Peyton Manning had 3 receivers with more than 1000 receiving yards: Marvin Harrison with 1113 and 15 tds, Reggie Wayne with 1210 and 12 tds, and Brandon Stokely with 1077 and 10 tds. It's more than possible that Demaryius Thomas, Eric Decker, and Wes Welker to all eclipse 1000 yards this year as well. Last time I checked Decker won't be docked any points for having the GOAT throwing to him.


Wrap-Up
Are you honestly expecting Peyton Manning to suddenly become a far less accurate and meticulous quarterback? I'm not. Do you honestly think defenses are going to account for Wes Welker aka the greatest slot receiver ever the same way they did for Brandon Stokely last year? I don't. So while some may think Decker will see many less targets, I disagree and think with defenses focusing coverage on Demaryius Thomas and Wes Welker, Decker will find himself using his size as a mismatch over smaller corners, something Peyton Manning loves exploiting.


Conclusion: Where should you draft Eric Decker?
Decker finished as a top 10 receiver last year and there's no reason to believe that he won't finish there again. He's currently the 24th receiver off the board, which is absolutely ridiculous. Hiss blend of size, touchdown ability, and offensive situation means Decker SHOULD go off the board around Vincent Jackson and Dwyane Bowe, but you can get Decker at a discount. I would say the early fifth round would be the ideal spot to take Decker, but I'd have no problem reaching to take Decker...... DECKER

Rankings, 51-100

This area of rankings is extremely QB and WR heavy. This means you should load up on running backs early because there are many capable wrs and qbs available in rounds 5-7, whereas there aren't many viable running backs. As you can see by these rankings, I would take any of the 5 quarterbacks before any skill position player starting in the 5th round, unless the draft dictates that one of them will be available for your 6th round pick, in which case I'd be fine reaching for Mendenhall or a wideout.

51. Colin Kaepernick - would be much, much higher had Crabtree not torn his Achilles. Kaepernick's value will lie in his legs - with 7 starts last year, he rushed for 415 yards and 5 touchdowns, and added 264 yards and 3 touchdowns in the playoffs. Over a full season, dare I say Kaepernick could eclipse 1000 rushing yards? The 49ers have THE best offensive line in football, adding to his chances for 1000  yards on the ground. When the niners are in the red zone, his legs will be the primary option for touchdowns and the great offensive line will help Kaepernick still get touchdowns when defenses begin to expect him to run.

52. Andrew Luck - Luck is a beast, leading a pretty crappy Colts team to the playoffs last year. The Colts fixed last season's lousy running game by adding Ahmad Bradshaw, so Luck will benefit from teams needing to defend against the run more this year. Luck is surprisingly agile, and got 5 rushing tds last year, and I really like Luck in the red zone. He knows when to take off and run, so I think the touchdowns definitely could be there again this year. Luck reminds me of Peyton Manning, not only because he is a Colt, but because the dude is an absolute genius and super hard worker, and it definitely shows on the field. I believe his completion percentage will improve this year while his yards per completion should decrease a bit with Bruce Arians and his vertical passing game in Arizona this year. With the arrival of Luck's old offense coordinator Pep Hamilton (a Jim Harbaugh disciple), Luck definitely has a chance to be a top 5 fantasy quarterback this year.

53. Russell Wilson - I LOVE Russell Wilson. He's a great leader and an even better quarterback. Who cares that he doesn't have the ideal size for a qb, he's smart enough to overcome it. He played baseball in college and was drafted by the Rockies so you know he's got a great arm, he's really really smart, he's a really hard worker, and he's also a great running qb. As the Seahawks coaching staff began trusting Wilson more as last season went on, the offense really began to click, and Wilson's stats began vastly improving. Through the first 7 weeks of 2012, Wilson had only 1230 yards, 8 touchdowns, and 7 interceptions. He threw 18 touchdowns and 3 picks for the rest of the season, with almost 2000 yards to boot. I think the Seahawks will boast one of the best offenses in football this year, and I think a great idea for drafting would be taking Marshawn Lynch in the 1st round and pairing him with Russell Wilson in the 5th. The Seahawks had the 2nd most rushing yards in all of football last year, and I expect Wilson to improve on the 489 yards he had last year. Lastly, Wilson was the 4th best fantasy qb from week 8 on last year, and he did that as a rookie and without Percy Harvin. Now he's had a full offseason to work with the offense and his brain is a sponge - he absorbs everything - and it's looking like Wilson should be a fantasy STUD this year.

54. Matt Ryan - you know what you're getting with Matt Ryan - lots of throws to 2 elite receivers and an elite tight end, but no production with his legs. Defenses will have to worry about Steven Jackson running the ball more than they did with Turner last year, which should open up the passing lanes just a little more, not that Ryan needs it. Draft with confidence.

55. Robert Griffin III - he's just been cleared to begin football activities, but I have a feeling he'll be throwing the ball more and rushing less this year. His rushing ability have always overshadowed his arm, but he has a great arm and he's a very intelligent passer. I think RGIII has a great chance to be a stud fantasy quarterback even if he doesn't run the ball nearly as much as he did last year. If you draft RGIII, you NEED to be the first drafter to take a 2nd quarterback, which is why I ranked him below the other quarterbacks.

56. Tom Brady - last year, I HAD to have Brady last year, selecting him with the 5th overall pick. Here are the 5 reasons I loved Brady last year - 1. Gronk 2. Aaron Hernandez 3. Wes Welker 4. Brandon Lloyd reuniting with offensive coordinator Josh McDaniels (Lloyd had 1448 yards and 11 touchdowns under McDaniels in 2010 with Kyle Orton as the qb. Tom Brady is just a little better than Orton, I typed sarcastically) 5. The running game was a question mark. Well reasons 2, 3, and 4 are no longer there, reason 1 has chronic back problems so who knows how many games he'll play this year, and reason 5 no longer exists with the emergence of Stevan Ridley and Shane Vereen. I definitely do not love Brady this year, but if he falls far enough and I still don't have a qb, I might ponder taking him.

Update: Tom Brady has been pinpoint in the preseason, not sure why I have doubted him. Previous rank: 90

57. Torrey Smith - in 5 games with 10+ targets last season, Smith had 28 receptions for 497 yards and 4 touchdowns. Anquan Boldin is no longer a Raven, so Smith will get a large volume of targets this year. Pitta's injury hurts Smith, as he is literally the only receiving option for the Ravens other than Ray Rice, so defenses will be focused on Smith 100% of the time.

58. Reggie Wayne - Wayne is the primary receiver for Andrew Luck, and you want to draft primary receivers for great quarterbacks. Wayne turns 35 in the middle of the season though, so he's in the late stages of his career at this point, which is why he's ranked so low.

59. Pierre Garçon - Pierre Boy would ranked much higher if he didn't already have injury concerns this year. When you look at his 2012 stats in games he played, you would think he'd be ranked much higher, but he already stated he won't be 100% in 2013, so I'm wary to take him.

60. Eddie Lacy - he was pretty good but not great in college, but it feels like he was always hampered by injury. With that being said, Lacy is in a great situation to take over the starting role for a great offense in the Packers, so if it looks like Lacy will be the starter, he'll jump up in the rankings. The Packers also spent a draft choice on Johnathan Franklin, so it's important that Lacy doesn't get hurt during training camp and the preseason. The fact is, you want the running back for top offenses in football, and the Packers should remain a top 5 offense this year.

61. Montee Ball - if you could guarantee me 65% of the Broncos touches by running backs for Ball he'd be a 2nd round pick. With his ADP it appears drafters are expecting him to get the bulk of the carries, but I need sure playing time when I'm drafting rookies. Ball's critics in college mostly mentioned the big and great offensive lines at Wisconsin Ball was blessed to run behind, but the Broncos offensive line itself is one of the best if not the best offensive line behind the 49ers. Keep in mind that Ball set the NCAA record for touchdowns in a single season, so if he's the Broncos red zone back he could see 10+ touchdowns.

62. Giovani Bernard - he could catch a lot of passes for the Bengals this year, but don't expect him to take too many carries from BJGE, especially in the red zone. I expect Bernard to be heavily involved in the passing game but BJGE to get 60-70% of carries.

63. Rashard Mendenhall - the Cardinals offensive line will be better than last year, that is for sure. Pass happy Carson Palmer and Bruce Arians with Larry Fitzgerald and breakout candidate wideouts Michael Floyd and Andre Roberts will certainly ensure that Mendenhall won't be seeing any 8 man boxes. Mendenhall is a better receiving back than you think and has a chance of eclipsing 50 receptions as Marcel Reece and Darren McFadden combined for 136!!!! receptions last year. That number is ridiculous.

64. Mark Ingram - third year will be the charm for the former Heisman winner. Chris Ivory is in New York so Ingram is in line for his most touches. The Saints under Sean Payton were actually the most balanced running vs. passing team in the league a couple ago, so Ingram should expect enough touches in a great offense to be a #2 running back this year. He's only 23, give him a chance.

65. Ben Tate - he's healthy this year so he's back to being the best backup in the NFL. Although Shane Vereen and Andre Brown are both ranked higher than Tate, that's because they're in line for a lot of carries despite being the #2 backs. Tate is more of a pure backup who will get some carries, but if Foster misses a game, Tate can step up and put up RB1 numbers, and if Foster misses any lengthy times, Tate could be a top 10 back over that time.

Update: up from 99, might have huge role depending on whether Foster is sidelined

66. Ryan Mathews - Mathews could be a sneaky steal in the 5-6 rounds of drafts. Mathews was the seventh best rusher in ppr leagues in 2011, and in 2012 he had double digit points in 8 of 12 games played. The offensive line sucks and he's a perennial injury risk, but if he puts up RB2 numbers when he plays. He's a risk for sure, but he's a great pick if you've already locked up 2-3 running backs and aren't completely dependent on his production; then Mathews' stats become icing on the cake.

67. Jason Witten - he'll see a lot of targets, catch a lot of passes, and gain a lot of yards, but for some reason he's never been a favorite red zone target for Romo. You know what you're getting when you draft Witten.

68. Tony Gonzalez - he just had of his best statistical seasons in his career at age 36, and he's still a major option in the high powered Falcons offense. Have I ever mentioned anything about drafting players in the best offenses? Maybe I'll write an article about it.

69. Desean Jackson - Chip Kelly's system at Oregon was based on the run as the Ducks ran the ball 685 times last year compared to 250 pass attempts. With Jeremy Maclin out for the season with a torn ACL, I think Desean Jackson is one of the few playmakers left on the Eagles offense, so Chip Kelly will need to utilize his explosiveness if he plans to win games, especially with in an offense that will look to run a lot of plays.

70. Josh Gordon - his 2 game suspension is great news for bargain hunters during draft day. Out of any wideout available this late, he's my pick for most likely to finish as a top 10 system. Norv Turner is going to open the Browns offense up with his vertical passing game, and Gordon should provide huge numbers in the 14 games he does play.

71. Golden Tate - look for Tate, now in his 4th season, to break out this season after he and Russell Wilson had an offseason to get on the same page. After the Seahawks acquired Percy Harvin, it looked like Tate might take a back role in this offense, but after Harvin underwent surgery, Tate will be taking the creative role the Seahawks were designing for Harvin. Russell Wilson is a year older and wiser with a full offseason with Pete Carroll to develop a great playbook, so I'm looking at Tate to be the main beneficiary of their planning.

72. T.Y. Hilton - DRAFT T.Y. Hilton!!! He's got great chemistry with Andrew Luck and the Colts offense is going to be AMAZING this year.

73. Chris Givens - he really should be Sam Bradford's deep threat this year, and rumor on the street is he has an extremely high football IQ. As a later pick, he'll provide a sneaky upside guy with the potential for a long touchdown on any play.

74. Steve Smith - Smith had another 1000 yard season last year, but only 4 touchdowns. Smith is 34 now and has made his career as an explosive (or is it incendiary) receiver, and usually the speed is one of the first skills to go. I definitely don't want to be the guy stuck with Smith as his game erodes, and since this could be the year, I don't think I'll be drafting Smith this year.

75. Wes Welker - Peyton Manning made Brandon Stokely look great in the slot for many years and now he has the best ever slot receiver in Welker. While I don't think he'll rack up as many catches or yards as he did in his heyday with the Patriots, Welker will still be a great pick in ppr leagues. In non-ppr leagues, his draft price is too high for me since I don't see many touchdowns or enough yards to justify taking him before the 5th round.

76. Mike Williams - Williams' career has been a tale of 2 seasons, with successful seasons in his rookie and 3rd years, but an extremely lousy season in his 2nd year. I believe the arrival of Vincent Jackson really helped Mike Williams as it took the pressure off Williams to be the #1 receiver in Tampa. At 6'2, he's a big target in the red zone and compiled 19 red zone targets last year, a top 10 number for wideouts. Available in the middle rounds, Williams has a good chance for 1000 yards and 10 touchdowns with about 70 receptions, but his season will depend on the inconsistent Josh Freeman. If Freeman can improve in his 2nd year under head coach Greg Schiano, Williams numbers could rival Vincent Jackson.

77. James Jones - I don't think he'll attain his 2012 touchdown total of 14, but he could get double digit tds, especially if Jordy Nelson misses time. His weekly stats will be touchdown dependent, as in 2012 he had 11 weeks with less than 65 yards.

78. Stevie Johnson - I actually kinda like Stevie this year. He posted his third straight 1000 yard season in 2012 and the biggest deterrent to his success (the inconsistent and errant-throwing Ryan Fitzpatrick) is no longer a Bill. Kevin Kolb and EJ Manual are better quarterbacks than Fitzpatrick, so there should be more consistency to the Bills passing game this year. When you combine that with the talented CJ Spiller drawing pressure from opposing defenses, as well as their drafting of talented wideouts such as Robert Woods, Stevie Johnson should see less focus from defenses. The problem with Johnson is a lot of his value was derived from him being the only wide receiver for the Bills so he received a high volume of targets. It will be interesting to see how the better quarterback play and the better surrounding cast affects Johnson this year.

79. Cecil Shorts - with his first real action in the NFL, Shorts broke out, surprising fantasy players everywhere that a receiver on the lowly Jaguars could put up nice stats when Chad Henne was the quarterback. After week 8, he finished with 4 100 yard receiving games and had 10 or more fantasy points 6 times until a concussion cut his season short (pun intended). I'm going to be playing close attention to the Jags qb battle this summer; if Gabbert wins the qb competition I don't want any part of any Jags, but if Henne wins, I may target Shorts. The Jaguars will be running a fast paced offense this year in order to keep defenses on their toes, and with a healthy MJD drawing attention, Shorts could have a great year, as long as Blaine Gabbert is not the quarterback.

80. Antonio Brown - I think it'll be interesting to see Brown's production in the absence of field stretcher Mike Wallace. I personally think the Steelers are going to be a pretty bad team this year with a good chance of finishing behind the Browns in the AFC North, so I'm not going to be owning Brown to see how he does sans Wallace.

81. DeAngelo Williams - Williams is an intriguing fantasy player. He can break runs for long gains, but he needs a lot of touches to break those long runs. Stewart is hurt to start the summer, but I'm not sure he misses enough time to make Williams a significant, must-start running back. 

82. Daryl Richardson - with Pead suspended for the first game of the season, Richardson will get the first crack at the starting job for the Rams with Isaiah Pead suspended for the first game, but coach Fisher has already stated there will be a RBBC in St. Louis, so I wouldn't trust DRich to be much.

83. Bilal Powell - he had some positive flashes for the Jets in his rookie season, and Chris Ivory is an injury sure to happen. Mark this down right now, Powell will start more games for the Jets this year than any other back. Yes I have ranked Powell before Chris Ivory, yes I would take Powell, Helu, and Joique Bell before Ivory, and no Chris Ivory is not in my top 100.

84. Matthew Stafford - he's a season removed from throwing for 5000 yards, he still has Calvin Johnson, and the Lions didn't add Reggie Bush for his rushing ability. Stafford has seen his draft position drop 4-5 rounds since last year, partially because of his "subpar" year last year (4967 yards but a dip from 41 to 20 touchdowns), meaning he's a great value pick this year.

85. Tony Romo - great fantasy qb, not so great real life quarterback. You know what you're getting with Romo, but the glut of quarterbacks this year makes Romo a great value pick in the mid-later rounds of drafts. He's got tons of weapons, and the offensive line should be at least a little improved with the drafting of Travis Frederick.

86. Jermichael Finley - he's flashed the potential, and there are reports that the light bulb has gone off in Finley's head. 2013 is a contract year for Finley and he's shown up in great shape, so the extra motivation from it being his contract year, plus the departure of Jennings and early injury worries for Nelson should lead to a career year for Finley.


87. Zach Sudfeld - 6’7 rookie out of Nevada won the offseason lotto for undrafted free agents, as Gronk has gone under the knife a couple times this season, and Aaron Hernandez has presumably been having his derriere checked for knives. Sudfeld is my best bet for tight end to come out of nowhere and dominate, not unlike Gronk a few years ago. Like Gronk, his college years were riddled with injuries, which probably led to him being undrafted, though it is important to note that he was injury-free his senior year of college. He ran a 4.71 40 during his pro day, just a tad slower than top tight end draftee Tyler Eifert (4.68) and a little faster than the second tight end off the board, Zach Ertz (4.73). He has been working with the Patriots first team offense, and Sudfeld has flashed great hands in the preseason.

88. Julius Thomas - boy I love this guy. After spending most of his first two seasons in the league hurt, he started getting first team reps with the Broncos this offseason with Joel Dreeson hurt. If this 6’5 physical FREAK becomes the starter, as I think he will, it’s not difficult to see him ascending to a top 5 tight end. Look at the numbers Dallas Clark put up with Peyton Manning in the three seasons from 07-09: 235 receptions, 2570 yards, 27 tds. While there are many mouths to feed in Denver, Peyton Manning has always been a great distributor of the football, and there’s no reason to believe that won’t continue this year. The addition of the best slot receiver in the NFL to two great outside receivers should only help open up the middle of the field for Thomas. He is an example of a delicious low risk, high reward player to target at the end of drafts.

89. Jordan Cameron - he's huge and Norv Turner has a history of turning no name tight ends into STUDS. Cameron will be the primary red zone target for the Browns, and I've mentioned before that the Browns should have one of the better offenses in football. Cameron's stock is rising because of two touchdowns and a lot of targets in his first two preseason games. I'm very excited to own Cameron on a lot of teams this year.

90. Coby Fleener - the second year, 6'6 tight end will benefit greatly from his old Stanford Offensive Coordinator Pep Hamilton, as well as his old Stanford quarterback Andrew Luck. I expect the Colts to employ a lot of tight end sets this year, shifting Fleener and fellow second year tight end Dwayne Allen all around the field to create mismatches. 

91. Greg Olsen - he was the number 6 tight end in fantasy in 2012, and with tight end depth depleted, he should be taken in rounds 7-8.

92. Mohamed Sanu - this Rutgers grad is bound to become a favorite target for Andy Dalton. The Bengals figure to be a heavy passing team under offensive coordinator Jay Gruden, and trust me, Sanu will see plenty of catches while defenses shade towards AJ Green. Sanu isn't fast but he's a slippery receiver who will find himself open underneath. He is an awesome athlete at 6'2 who could have been a stud safety as well. In the first three games that the Bengals starting featuring Sanu, he caught 4 touchdowns with 19 targets. He's bound to be Andy Dalton's favorite checkdown target this year, so Sanu will be valuable in a ppr. 

93. Kenbrell Thompkins - it's looking more and more like he'll be the top outside receiver for the Patriots. The undrafted rookie clearly has Brady's trust as he hasn't been dropping anything in camp. He's a great route runner, and at his current value, drafters shouldn't be wary of Brandon Lloyd or Chad Ochocinco repeats, since Thompkins isn't being picked in the 3/4 rounds.

94. Emmanuel Sanders - I expect a career year for Sanders. At his best, his numbers could resemble Antonio Brown's 1100 yards and 2 touchdowns from 2011, but I'd say the yardage totals are a little high and the touchdown totals are a little low. He could be a great surprise pick in ppr leagues.

95. Greg Little - Little is a 6'2, third year receiver who typically isn't even drafted even though the Browns have Norv Turner as the new offensive coordinator. Little is going to play in the best offense he ever had and he's been working out plenty with Brandon Weeden this offseason. Josh Gordon is suspended for the first 2 games, so Little will get the first crack at targets for the Browns vertical offense.

96. Joique Bell - he's a better, more well-rounded running back than Leshoure and when the Lions realize that, Bell will get goal line and third down work, and for an offense like the Lions, that is a high volume role. Leshoure just really isn't that good. Reggie Bush has never been the image of healthiness, so don't be surprised if Bell has a HUGE role in the Lions offense by midway through the season.

97. Andre Roberts - the Cardinals are going to run a ton of 3 wide receiver sets, and Roberts is a smart receiver with great intangibles. With defenses focusing on Fitzgerald and Floyd, Roberts will be Palmer's favorite target and a ppr stud. 

98. Michael Floyd - I cannot stress this enough, the Cardinals are going to have a great offense this year. I feel like Bruce Arians and Carson Palmer are a perfect match and the Cardinals receivers are certainly going to benefit. Floyd is a 2012 first round pick and combines speed and agility with a 6'3 body. This receiving corps that Arizona has of Fitgerald, Floyd, Roberts, and Housler is the best Palmer has ever played with and I expect him to shine! Let the Palmer love extend over Floyd.

99. Vincent Brown - a great route runner and pass catcher but injury prone, Brown will see a lot of targets in the new Chargers underneath passing game. Brown was everyone's sleeper in 2012 before fracturing his ankle, and he is generally overlooked due to his injury history. In the later rounds however, you should be hunting for potential breakouts, and if Brown stays healthy, he has a great shot at 80+ receptions.

Update: Danario Alexander tore his ACL and is out for the season

100. Roy Helu - count me as someone who doesn't trust Mike Shanahan to rely as heavily on Alfred Morris as he did last year. Helu is a multi-dimensional back who can catch passes and he's healthy. Just throwing this out there, but don't be shocked when Helu is the starter by week 5. Draft him and look like a genius and a soothsayer once he gets the job.

Differences between my ranks, ADP, and Yahoo! ranks

Here are the major differences seen between my pre-draft rankings, the rankings on the most popular fantasy site (or at least the site I use), and the ADPs calculated by fantasyfootballcalculator.com. Here are links to each of my rankings . So with no further ado, here they are:

Guys I'm taking earlier than the others

Doug Martin - 1 in my rankings, 3 for ADP and Yahoo. You should click on that 1-3 link over there and you should read why. He's ranked 3rd on Yahoo and that's his ADP as well. If you have first or second pick, meander on over to my write-up of him and prepare to have a few "hmmms" and "oh wows".

Trent Richardson - 5 in my rankings, 8 for ADP, 11 on Yahoo. Trent's going to be a workhorse in Norv Turner and Rob Chudzinski's system. BEAST

Steven Jackson - 6 in my rankings, 16 for ADP, 13 on Yahoo. I'm buying SJax starting with the 6th pick. Just look at Steven Jackson's career stats, then look at Michael Turner's stats from the past 5 seasons (especially the touchdowns), then imagine a better-than-Turner Sjax, who is also a better receiver than Turner ever was, as the lead back for the high-powered Falcons offense. Boom.

Steven Ridley - 13 in my rankings, 14 for ADP, 24 on Yahoo. Alert to those drafting online on Yahoo: Ridley would be a steal at the end of the 2nd round, and I ranked him early in the 2nd for non-ppr leagues.

Frank Gore - 20 in my rankings, 24 for ADP, 35 on Yahoo. If you can get Gore early third round on Yahoo, I'd go for it. The 49ers have one of the best, if not THE best offensive lines in football, and Jim Harbaugh is kinda a genius.

Demarco Murray 23 in my rankings, 28 for ADP, 42 on Yahoo. Another Yahoo sleeper alert, he has the skills and opportunity to be a top 10 back and his offensive line is better this year.

Dwayne Bowe - 27 in my rankings, 46 for ADP, 38 on Yahoo. I see a big season for Bowe, his first with an offensive guru head coach, Andy Reid, and his first competent quarterback, Alex Smith.

Ahmad Bradshaw - 33 in my rankings, 51 for ADP, 71 on Yahoo. The first but certainly not last 30+ disparity between my rankings and those of Yahoo. I think Bradshaw becomes the lead back for the Colts and runs his way toward a great season.

Eric Decker - 39 in my rankings, 65 for ADP, 54 on Yahoo. He was Peyton Manning's favorite red zone target last year, and Welker's presence should open up holes for Decker. Love me some Eric Decker this year

Vernon Davis - 40 in my rankings, 58 for ADP, 57 on Yahoo. Kaepernick has to throw to somebody other than Boldin, and I can see Davis stepping up big for the niners this year.

Shane Vereen - 47 in my rankings, 62 for ADP, 74 on Yahoo. I know I love Vereen this year a lot, but the ADP is going to keep creeping down towards my number. I expect a lot of touches, especially receptions, for Vereen in the Pats offense, you know, the one who ran the second most amount of plays in NFL history last year.

Andrew Luck - 54 in my rankings, 76 for ADP, 60 on Yahoo. Luck is AMAZING. He should be one of the the first 7 qbs off the board.

Rashard Mendenhall - 62 in my rankings, 73 for ADP and Yahoo. Mendenhall is going to catch a lot of checkdown passes from Palmer but I wouldn't expect too much from the rushing aspect other than 4-8 tds.

Mark Ingram - 63 in my rankings, 87 for ADP, 99 on Yahoo. Grab Ingram, he's in line for a big role in the Saints offense this year. The Saints had the most 50/50 rushing/passing game in 2011 under Sean Payton, and will run the ball more than people realize. Ingram in his third year is prime to have a huge role in the Saints offense.

Josh Gordon, Golden Tate, TY Hilton, Chris Givens - 68-71 in my rankings, 69-100 for ADP, 83-122 on Yahoo. I fore see HUMONGOGINORMOUS years for these 34 and they are all criminally underranked on Yahoo.

Bilal Powell - 81 in my rankings, 149 for ADP, 136 on Yahoo. Chris Ivory is made of glass alert.

Jermichael Finley, Zach Sudfeld, Julius Thomas, Jordan Cameron, and Coby Fleener - 84-88 in my rankings, 85-unranked for ADP (Thomas), and 102-1977 for Yahoo. Let's just say I think the tight ends that will end up in the top 10 are kinda low in other people's rankings, but that may not last long

Joique Bell - 95 in my rankings, unranked for ADP, 167 on Yahoo. I'm a Joique lover. Reggie Bush is suddenly no longer injury prone so Bell will only be the goal line and change of pace back, right? I could see Bell being a perfect running back for the Lions offense, with his combined rushing and pass catching ability.

Michael Floyd 96, 180, 116 and Emmanuel Sanders 97, 115, 112 - two more young receivers I can see having big years.

Roy Helu 100, 175, 190 - love Helu, third down back with the talent for more in the run heavy Redskins offense

Mohamed Sanu, Kenbrell Thompkins, Greg Little, Andre Roberts etc., I like a good amount of wideouts a lot.

Guys I'm taking later than others

Arian Foster - 10 in my rankings, 7 for ADP, 2 on Yahoo. Foster's great, I'm just taking Martin, Peterson, and Charles, in that order, before him.
UPDATE: hasn't played with back injuries... waiting for updates from the Texans.

Aaron Rodgers - 27 in my rankings, 26 for ADP, 19 on Yahoo - I would advocate not taking Rodgers this year until the 3rd round, but Yahoo disagrees.

Rankings, 21-50

21. Maurice Jones-Drew - former consistent top 10 pick in drafts, but he's fallen due to a foot injury (Lisfranc, not good) and because the Jags suck. The Jags were better off with Henne at qb last year and if they turn to Henne this year, their offense may not be really, really bad. That's not a compliment though, the Jaguars are awful. But MJD is still only 28, and he did split carries early in his career with Fred Taylor so it's not like he's been run into the ground. If MJD starts the season 100% and Henne is the qb, MJD will be a great value pick. I'll have to see how he progresses over the summer before I push him up in the rankings, and if everything goes PERFECTLY for MJD, I would push him up to 12, because he has proven in the past that he can be a fantasy stud.

22. Chris Johnson - I shudder when I think about the fact that I have CJ?K ranked this high, but the Titans VASTLY improved their offensive line this offseason. They had one of the worst offensive lines in football this year, but signed top 5 guard Andy Levitre and drafted my boy Chance Warmack. CJ?K did not have many holes to run through in 2012, but the improved offensive line should open up many more running lanes for Johnson. He's probably the best running back at exploiting holes for really long gains, and he'll have plenty more holes to exploit this year! That sounded wrong.... but he'll have a bunch of 50+ yard rushes this year. 

23. Demarco Murray - I love Demarco. Eventually injured players stay healthy for a year, and I'm hoping this is the year he does. The Cowboys offense will be one of the best in football this year, and Demarco Murray will be a vital piece with his powerful running. If he stays healthy and plays 16 games this year, you'll get a steal with Murray for a discount.

24. Demaryius Thomas - he's a huge receiver and has Peyton Manning as his qb. He's got great hands and I'm not worried about the addition of Wes Welker to the offense, as the added defensive attention to Welker should offset the production Thomas would theoretically lose. In fact, I can see Thomas having an even better year than last year. This guy needs to be a second round pick.

25. Larry Fitzgerald - while last year, I wasn't touching Larry Fitz in drafts with a long stick, this year, I'm touching him! I expect him to have his best season ever this year. Let's look at the facts:

1. 4 quarterbacks threw passes for the Cardinals last year: John Skelton, Kevin Kolb, Ryan Lindley, and Brian Hoyer, aka garbage, garbage, who?, and who?. They combined for an awful 3383 yards passing, which in turn led to Fitzgerald's worst yardage output since his rookie year and his lowest TD output ever.

2. Carson Palmer is the new quarterback and he is still a much better qb than any of the 4 qbs. He has thrown for 4000 yards 3 times in his career including last year. He throws the ball often, and though he's prone to interceptions, he still throws for huge yardage totals. Fitzgerald is better than any weapon Palmer has had in Oakland the past two years, and is probably the best weapon he's ever had (Yes Fitzgerald is better than Chad Johnson, though much less entertaining). Johnson had 5 straight seasons in his prime with 1000+ yards and 7+ tds, which should be the floor for Fitzgerald this year.

3. New Head Coach Bruce Arians was the interim head coach / offensive coordinator for the Colts last year, and rookie Andrew Luck only threw for 4374 yards. I expect the Cardinals to be throwing the ball extremely often, and Larry Fitz is a top 3 pass catcher in football.

4. The Cardinals kinda suck, and they play an extremely tough schedule, with 2 games against each of the Seahawks, 49ers, and the much improved Rams. They have a pretty solid defense (I love Patrick Peterson and Tyrann Mathieu) but one would still expect the Cardinals to be losing and throwing the ball, with Fitz making receptions now that he has a competent quarterback.

Larry will more than likely fall into the 3rd round in drafts this year, so take him with confidence in the early 3rd.

26. Drew Brees - I like Brees better than Rodgers for fantasy purpose because the Saints offense will be the shizzzzz this year while the Packers will still be a top offense, but they drafted Eddie Lacy, Greg Jennings is gone, and Jordy Nelson already underwent knee surgery. I prefer Bress, if you prefer Rodgers I have no problem with that.

27. Aaron Rodgers - like Calvin Johnson, I don't need to tell you why you should draft Rodgers, but in leagues with 4 points / td pass and 25 passing yards / point, I don't think Rodgers is a second round pick. There are too many good quarterbacks available rounds 4 - 8 that I think the first 2 rounds should be running backs and wide receivers only, with Jimmy Graham as the only exception. I give Rodgers the slight nod over Drew Brees because Rodgers can run also, so you'll get some rushing yards and tds thrown in with his passing stats. In a 2 qb league or a league with 6 tds / td pass, don't hesitate to take Rodgers earlier than this.

28. Dwayne Bowe - Bowe is a bigger wideout who has proven himself as a red zone threat in the past, with 15 touchdown receptions in 2015. Unfortunately for Bowe, the coaching and quarterback play for the Chiefs for the past two years has been #@*$~^% ^$&*@$#, incompetent in PG-13 terms, so the arrival of Andy Reid and Alex Smith to KC should benefit Bowe greatly, especially since Reid loves to throw the ball. I'm thinking somewhere near 100 catches, 1400-1500 yards, and 12-15 tds. Bowe will be a #1 receiver in fantasy teams so he should be YOUR #1 receiver. If you can nab him in the 4th round, that's all the better for you, but I think he belongs in the 3rd round. If everything goes perfectly for Bowe, next year I could see him being taken where Demaryius Thomas is being taken now.


29. Randall Cobb - Cobb broke out last year to the tune of 80 receptions for 954 yards (11.9 ypc) and 8 tds, and added 10 rushes for 132 yards. With the departure of Greg Jennings, I expect Cobb to become the focal point of one of the best offenses in football, and Aaron Rodgers, the guy throwing the ball for the Packers, has already stated that Cobb should catch 100 balls this year. Cobb is extremely versatile, and take it from someone who had him last year, he is very fun to own. In ppr leagues, I could see taking him in the late 2nd round as a very viable option.


30. Roddy White - Sharod is turning 32 this year but is still an integral part of the high-powered Falcons offense. He's watched his catches and touchdown totals decrease the past 3 seasons ("only" 92 catches last year, and I expect that trend to continue. With Steven Jackson in town, and further progression from Julio Jones, White will probably see a further decrease in his stats, but he should still be a top 15 wideout, with a chance to get into the top 10, especially since Julio Jones isn't the face of durability.


31. Lamar Miller - Miller is certainly unproven, with only 51 career carries for 250 yards (4.9 ypc), but he's entering the summer as the #1 running back for a Dolphins team that made a lot of additions over the offseason. The addition of Mike Wallace will stretch defenses and no longer allow them to stack 8 in the box. Dustin Keller running seam routes up the middle of the field will draw linebackers back. The departure of Reggie Bush has opened the door for a breakout season by Miller and I personally think it will happen. The Dolphins run a zone-blocking scheme that complements Miller's skill sets - he's a quick runner, not a power back - should help lead to big results for Miller this year. Miller is also a gifted pass catcher and has vastly improved as a pass protector, so I see potential for Miller to be a three down back. A lot of fantasy players are unwilling to take a flyer this early on a player who they haven't seen enough, but not me - I drafted Doug Martin 29th overall last year and he turned out well. Every year, there are players who haven't demonstrated enough coming into the year, but once they get the opportunity, they run away with it, and I think Miller has a great chance to be one of those players this year.

32. Cam Newton - Newton finished with the 24th most rushing yards and the 11th most rushing touchdowns. Cam Newton is a quarterback. He is a #2 running back who threw for just under 4000 yards last year. He's the best red zone threat for the Panthers, and expect his numbers to keep improving in his third season.

33. Peyton Manning - he's got the best #1 receiver he's ever had in Demaryius Thomas (yes better than Marvin Harrison, at least talent wise)! He's got the best slot receiver in NFL history in Wes Welker! He's got Eric Decker, who is a great, big #2 receiver! He's playing behind the best offensive line in football! He could end up as the #1 qb in fantasy and noone would be surprised! How about that for sentence similarity!

34. Vincent Jackson - Jackson would be ranked up by Bowe, Cobb, and White if he wasn't so up-and-down all year. 5 of his games he finished with 100+ receiving yards but he only had one less game with 50 or fewer yards. His season really hinges on the shoulders of Josh Freeman, who is playing his second year in Schiano's system and with Jackson, so if Freeman can progress and play more consistently, which I think he can, then VJax will be a #1 receiver akin to his days with Philip Rivers in San Diego. Word out of Tampa Bay has been first time father has been catching everything so far in camp, so a big year could be ahead for the 6'5 receiver

35. Andre Johnson - Johnson finished last year with a robust 1598 receiving yards but only 4 touchdowns. From week 9 to the end of the season, he had 1154 receiving yards, meaning he only had 444 in his first 7 games (Texans had their bye week 8). This is not good. Johnson is 32 now, the Texans still rarely throw the ball in the end zone, and let's not forget that Johnson only played in 7 games in 2011. I'm definitely not taking Johnson in the second round, but I think he's a solid pick towards the end of the third round. I actually don't like the Texans too much this year, though I still think they are a playoff team.

36. Marques Colston - Colston finished last year with his 4th straight 1000 yard season and he's still firmly planted as the #1 receiver on a highpowered Saints offense, so draft him with confidence. If you look at his production over the past 4 seasons, it's pretty clear what you're getting by drafting Colston.

37. Victor Cruz - the other Giant receiver with the lower ceiling but without the injury tag. 2 straight 1000 yard seasons for Cruz. Draft Nicks if you're willing to take a risk like me or Cruz if you want the more sure player to stay healthy all year.

38. Hakeem Nicks - if he plays 16 games this year, he will finish as a top 10 receiver. Will he play 16 games? TBD. He hasn't yet in his 4 NFL seasons.

39. Eric Decker - while I normally advocate that touchdowns are inconsistent from year to year, I will say in Decker's case, I don't think that is true. After finishing last year with 85 catches, 1064 yards, and 13 tds, he is primed for another big year, even with the arrival of Welker. Decker is a bigger receiver and Peyton Manning CLEARLY trusted him in the red zone, as he finished with 25 red zone targets and 12 red zone touchdowns. Uhhhh yea that's really good. Secondly, he had a 70.2% catch rate (catches/targets), which was the second best out of all receivers with 100+ targets. Uhhh yea that's also really good. On second thought, why don't I have Decker ranked higher?

40. Vernon Davis - with Crabtree hurt, Colin Kaepernick HAS to throw it to someone so why not this guy? Davis stepped up huge in the NFC Championship game and the Super Bowl, combining for 210 yards and a touchdown, and if the chemistry between him and Kaepernick continues to develop, Davis should eclipse 100 targets, a rarity for tight ends.

41. Rob Gronkowski - let's see how the summer goes for Gronk, but he definitely is an injury risk. He's a beast when healthy though, you gotta give him that.

42. Darren Sproles - In PPR leagues, Sproles and Bush next are obviously ranked much higher, with an early third round grade for Sproles and a late third for Bush.

43. Reggie Bush - with his expected role in Detroit to be similar to his role in New Orleans with more rushes, I won't be drafting Reggie unless I'm in a ppr league. Who do I think will be the main back in Detroit by week 5? Joique Bell.

44. David Wilson - I'm lower on Wilson than many others but I'm just too unsure of his role on offense. There's a huge Giant fan living in Clifton, NJ who was extremely pissed when Tampa Bay traded up to right before the Giants in the 2012 draft to take Doug Martin, leaving the Giants to take Wilson. Did I mention I have Doug Martin ranked #1 this year?

45. Danny Amendola - brought into New England to replace Wes Welker, so if healthy, here's what Amendola should provide: tons of catches, a good amount of yards, not many touchdowns. The question remains will he stay healthy?

46. Jordy Nelson - Nelson was hurt last year, which explains why he is being drafted later than he was in 2012, but if he's healthy, then he has a great chance of being a #1 receiver. With Greg Jennings gone, Nelson will certainly see his targets at or exceed the 96 he got in his breakout season of 2011, and with Aaron Rodgers as your qb, 100+ targets should result in a great season. 

Update: Underwent Knee Surgery, bumped down from 38

47. Shane Vereen - WHAT??? Yes I have Vereen ranked in the top 50. The Patriots ran the 2nd most plays in history last year, and are set to run a high paced offense again this year. Vereen is a great receiver, check the video below, and the Patriots have lined him up at wideout during early camp. With Woodhead in San Diego, let's pretend for a second that Vereen takes all the rushes that Woodhead had last year. Now Vereen has 138 carries. Woodhead had 40 receptions on 55 targets. Boom now Vereen has more receptions and targets. And when you consider Vereen got most of his production in a 7 week stretch, Vereen should be in line for a lot of touches this year. Darren Sproles statline from 2011 of 86 catches for 710 yards and 87 carries for 603 yards as an idea for the stats you can expect to see from Vereen this year. He'll be their main third down back, as well as their 2 minute drill back, as he kills Ridley in passing situations. Don't forget, the Pats did draft Vereen before Ridley back in 2011.

48. Le'Veon Bell - not sure why everyone is so enamored with Bell. The Steelers still have Jonathan Dwyer and Isaac Redman, and Todd Haley is not a run first play caller by any means. Look at the stats for Edgarrin James the year the Cardinals made the Super Bowl, when Haley was the play caller - the Cardinals were DEAD LAST in rush attempts and yards. Larrod Stephens-Howling, a guy Haley loves, will certainly be the third down back in Pittsburgh, so I don't see the reasoning for loving Bell.

49. Ahmad Bradshaw - I really like the fit in Indy, I love Luck as a qb and I think he'll open up defenses for Bradshaw to run through. He's one of the best pass protection running backs in the league, so he'll be on the field all 3 downs for a lot of drives, and Indy should have a top 10 offense this year. Injuries are his main concern, but if he can stay healthy, he'll be one of the steals of the draft. For what it's worth, new offensive coordinator was a coach under Jim Harbaugh at Stanford (and Andrew Luck's offensive coordinator), so I'd imagine the Colts offense may resemble the 49ers high powered offense from last year which featured a former injury prone rusher, Frank Gore.

50. Darren McFadden - The Raiders offensive line sucks, their quarterback sucks, their wide receiver corps is mehh. Even if DMC stays healthy, defenses will know he's the only offensive weapon on the Raiders. I'm staying far, far away from McFadden.